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25 January 2007

EZA 775 Briefing Paper:




German EU presidency - EU enters centre stage of German politics


Germany’s six months rotating chair of the EU is unlikely to achieve any major advances but might at least establish a turning point in terms both of internal EU affairs and challenges in foreign affairs. The declared main objective is the re-animation of the EU constitution (see EZA rpt675), which may become more realistic only after the elections in France 17Jun. although the two main Presidential candidates differ radically in their views on what that should entail. In terms of foreign policy Angela Merkel will try to nudge the EU towards closer partnership with the US, notably after the change of majority in the US congress. In broader terms the German chair aims at stemming the protectionist tide, which has gripped the EU and might threaten Germany’s stellar export performance. Finally, although there are conflicting interests within the German government coalition, especially as regards energy and competition law, having responsibility for the EU Presidency will help to bolster the prospect for economic reforms in Germany – notably corporate tax reform - and keep a lid on social security expenditure.

Asset conclusions: none in the near term – the results of the presidency will only become clear over the next 1 ½ to 2 years – but success might be gauged as much by meeting the deadlines for market deregulation as garnering support from the new French government for a new EU constitution.



© Graham Bishop

Documents associated with this article

EZA775.pdf


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