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17 January 2019

Brexit Weekly


May loses Brexit vote in landslide, EU preparing to delay Brexit, Remainers unite to call for second Brexit poll, demand for financial services in UK falls, EU budget implications of a no-deal Brexit and more.

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  Articles from 10 January 2019 - 17 January 2019

  Brexit & UK
 
 
Bloomberg: May loses Brexit vote in landslide, faces confidence vote
Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal was rejected by Parliament in a humiliating defeat, her plan for leaving the European Union all but dead. She faces a confidence vote on her government.  View Article
Speeches by Frans Timmermans and Michel Barnier at the Plenary session of the EP on the occasion of the debate on Brexit
First Vice-President Frans Timmermans said the Commission regrets the rejection of the Withdrawal Agreement. Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier warned that the risk of a no deal has never been so high. President Juncker urged the UK to clarify its intentions as soon as possible: "Time is almost up".  View Article
Bloomberg: Radical changes needed to secure Brexit, EU tells May
The scale of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit defeat has convinced the European Union to demand she radically rethink the UK’s red lines as the bloc signaled its willingness to delay Britain’s withdrawal by many months.  View Article
Financial Times: EU letter seeks to reassure UK on Irish border backstop
The EU has promised British MPs that the use of a contentious backstop plan for Northern Ireland will be “as short as possible”, in an exchange of letters aimed at bolstering Prime Minister Theresa May ahead of a historic House of Commons vote on her Brexit deal.  View Article
The Guardian: EU preparing to delay Brexit until at least July
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.  View Article
The Independent: Article 50 set to be extended even if Theresa May wins vote on Tuesday, senior ministers admit
Senior Tories have accepted that the sheer amount of legislation parliament must pass to prepare for Brexit regardless of whether Ms May’s plans are approved, makes a withdrawal on the agreed date almost impossible.  View Article
The Guardian: Markets expect Brexit to be delayed, Bank of England governor says
Investors expect a delay to Britain’s exit from the EU following the crushing defeat of the prime minister’s Brexit deal, the Bank of England governor has said.  View Article
The Guardian: Germany and France signal willingness to delay Brexit
Germany and France have signalled their willingness to delay Brexit as Michel Barnier offered to renegotiate with Theresa May should she be able to build a majority with Labour in favour of a closer relationship with the EU.  View Article
The Telegraph: Remainers unite to call for second Brexit poll - on Theresa May's deal or staying in EU
Pro-EU MPs raised the stakes in the battle over Brexit by publishing draft legislation to force a second referendum that could reverse the result of the 2016 vote.  View Article
Bloomberg: Four out of five Belgian companies aren't prepared for Brexit
With 80% of Belgian companies unprepared for Brexit of any kind, the government of Prime Minister Charles Michel is putting together a package of measures to help businesses in case the UK crashes out of the European Union without a withdrawal agreement.  View Article
The Independent: New Brexit referendum is most popular path if May’s deal is defeated, poll finds
An exclusive survey for The Independent shows that a fresh vote received more support than any of the four other options put to the public, including allowing the prime minister to go back to Brussels or a no-deal Brexit.  View Article
Sadiq Khan: If May stays at No 10, I’m starting Project Hope, the positive case for remain
Staying in the EU gives Britain the best shot at fixing the grievances that fuelled the Brexit vote. If there’s no election, the British need a referendum, argues the Mayor of London.  View Article
The Guardian: Labour MPs declare support for second Brexit referendum
Half a dozen Labour MPs came out in support of a second referendum for the first time at a Westminster photocall, arguing it was the “the only logical option” if the party could not secure a general election.  View Article
ITV News: Blocking Brexit could 'open door to extremist political forces', Grayling warns
Blocking Brexit could “open the door” to “extremist” populist political forces in the UK, and the millions who voted to Leave the European Union would feel “cheated”, a Cabinet minister has warned.  View Article
Bloomberg: Money managers win new round in Brexit fight over EU control
Money managers scored another point in their drive to prevent European Union regulators from gaining more control over their operations after Brexit.  View Article
The Guardian: Pessimism clouds UK banking as demand for services drops
One in three banks suffer a fall in business for the first time in five years as Brexit uncertainty, regulation and market volatility bites.  View Article
Demand for financial services falls for first time in five years – CBI/PWC
Total business volumes in the financial services sector fell slightly in the three months to December, marking the first contraction of demand since September 2013. That’s according to the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey.  View Article
Banque of France's Beau: Financial markets - driving innovation and connectivity
Denis Beau, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, makes the case for Paris as "the pre-eminent financial trading and financing hub for continental Europe" after Brexit.  View Article
Chatham House: A no-deal Brexit would be a geopolitical crisis
A no-deal Brexit would consume all political and strategic energy in London at a time when Europe is facing rising geopolitical threats from Russia and China, writes Erik Brattberg.  View Article
Bruegel: The implications of no-deal Brexit: is the European Union prepared?
The author, based on a note written for the Bundestag EU Committee, is exploring the possible consequences of a no-deal Brexit for the EU, assessing preparations on the EU side and providing guidance on the optimal strategy for the EU, depending on the choices made by the United Kingdom.  View Article
Bruegel: EU budget implications of a no-deal Brexit
A no-deal Brexit would mean the UK’s contributions to the EU budget fall to zero as of March 30th 2019. The author here calculates an estimate of the budget shortfall that would have to be covered in this case, and how the burden would fall across different member states.  View Article
La Croix: The 'No Deal' cost for the EU
The French newspaper La Croix reports that, in the event of a 'No Deal', there would be a shortfall of 10 billion euros in the European budget to end the year 2019.  View Article
BBC: Japan's PM says 'wish of whole world' to avoid no-deal
The "whole world" wants the UK to avoid a no-deal Brexit, Japan's PM has claimed, after talks with Theresa May.  View Article
The Guardian: Japanese bank blames Brexit for move to Amsterdam
Norinchukin bank announced plans to set up a wholly owned subsidiary in the Dutch capital, a move that critics of the prime minister’s deal cited as evidence that both a no-deal Brexit and her deal were likely to damage the UK economy.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: AXA moving international risk and reinsurance ops to Ireland
AXA’s international risk and reinsurance operations will move from the UK to Ireland ahead of Brexit. AXA chief executive Thomas Buberl reportedly told press that its Irish subsidiary will underwrite European large risks and reinsurance.  View Article
Financial Times: Growth forecasts lost in the fog of Brexit
Lack of clarity over the shape of Brexit has made it impossible to produce a single growth forecast for the UK’s economy, according to an increasing number of economists who are now publishing multiple predictions based on different outcomes.   View Article
Financial Times: Brexiters’ delusions on trade die hard
What the Brexiters are yearning to do is to throw away membership of the EU, the world’s second-largest consumer market, in favour of arduous talks, whose benefits are uncertain at best, writes Gideon Rachman.  View Article
The Independent: Brexit impact hits UK business by 16 per cent, study finds
The impact of the Brexit vote has reduced the value of UK companies by 16 per cent, according to new analysis.  View Article
CBI: Business can work with current plan, but if it fails, government must set out how it avoids no deal
UK businesses believe that the proposed Brexit plan provides a solution they can work with. But if parliament cannot agree a way forward, the Government must set out its plan to avert a ‘no deal Brexit’ and protect jobs, CBI Director-General said.  View Article
The Independent: More than 100 MEPs from every corner of EU sign heartfelt letter asking British people to reconsider Brexit
MEPs from nearly every country in the EU have signed a heartfelt joint letter to the British public asking them to reconsider their decision to leave the bloc to prevent an “unfolding Brexit disaster”.  View Article
Vox EU: Breaking the Brexit impasse: Achieving a fair, legitimate and democratic outcome
This column argues that, using a sequential voting system, it is within reach to structure the democratic process so that a voting procedure is fair to all views and the outcome is preferred by a majority to any other alternatives.  View Article
Vox EU: Brexit: Blame it on the banking crisis
Author argues that the austerity policies embarked on in response to the fiscal damage resulting from the banking crisis in 2007 to 2009 triggered the protest votes of left-behind voters, which at the margin allowed Leave to win the referendum vote.   View Article
NIESR: A divided country? As Westminster squabbles, Britain’s economic disparities are left unresolved
With all eyes on the current Brexit mess, politicians have been devoting less attention to the economic and social divisions that led to the Referendum in the first place. Recent research shows that the UK now has some of the largest regional disparities among OECD countries.  View Article
 

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