Red/Green Crisis
Red/Green control by unions on left, CDU/CSU on right portends government crisis by autumn 2004
The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) will support Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Agenda 2010 reforms at the special party congress on Sunday. Irrespective of this though, his Red/Green federal coalition is unlikely to survive the economic recession; Schröder is living politically on borrowed time. A challenge should come in autumn 2004 at the latest.
Neither should clients give credence to comments that the steady SPD vote in the Bremen state election at the weekend was a win for Schröder and SPD. This particular city state poll was dominated by the immense popularity of SPD Mayor Henning Scherf who signalled early that Schröder would not be welcome to campaign there.
Trades unions have effective control over the German federal government via their overwhelming representation among SPD Bundestag MdBs. Their judgment of Schröder's policies is key to the government's survival. On the other side, the right-wing opposition CDU/CSU parties control the Bundesrat upper house and are able to block almost any leglislation they do not support. The situation is untenable over a four-year legislature.
SummaryAsset Conclusions: Strong probability of Red/Green crisis makes German government policy U-turn toward deeper reforms possible within 18 months
Contents
.
Figures
.
© Graham Bishop
Documents associated with this article
|
|
EZA534.pdf
|
Key
Hover over the blue highlighted
text to view the acronym meaning
Hover
over these icons for more information
Comments:
No Comments for this Article