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02 June 2008

EZA 846 Briefing Note: Germany




GERMANY – Presidential Election


Debate on German Presidential election exposes the strategic issues of German politics

By nominating Gesine Schwan as candidate for the post of German President on 26 May the SPD seals its return to leftwing political roots ahead of the federal elections.
This breaches the convention of not challenging the incumbent president, and can be seen as an early start to their election campaign against the CDU.
The move aims at keeping pressure from the Left party a bay, but will have wider political implications, making the President a more political figure.
The move is unlikely to boost SPD chances of winning the election: dependence on support from the Left party and Köhler’s general popularity mean the SPD risk alienating its own constituency.


Asset conclusions: the challenge of an incumbent President makes the position a more political one, enhancing strategic views on political challenges. In principle market-positive.



© EZA

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EZA846.pdf


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