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09 December 2008

EZA 873 Report:




08Dec08: Germany

Change in German GDP trajectory – front loading the recession

Following a 15% slump in new orders and (car registrations) in Sep/Oct combined we feel compelled to change our forecast GDP trajectory.
German Q4 GDP is likely to decline be at least 1 pp., followed by a slight bounce in 1Q. This compares to our current forecast of a 0.5% decline in both, 4Q08 and 1Q09.
For the year 2009 as a whole we expect no significant change in GDP under our central scenario, ie GDP is seen -1.2% vs. 08.
Risks to the downside stem from second round effects of current contraction and deferred purchases ahead of tax rebates. Risks to the upside stem from a glut of liquidity, which might cause a “snap back” effect of GDP in the first half year 2009. 
 



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Documents associated with this article

EZA873.pdf


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