22 July 2003

EZA 548 Spain-Politics

Planning for Spain's 2004 general election starts time line for campaign, Aznar successor emerges
Spain’s Prime Minister José María Aznar and leader of the centre-right Partido Popular is lining up his forces ahead of his appointment of his successor as head of the PP in Oct03. In Jun03 he reiterated an earlier promise not to stand for a third term of office. The appointment of the right successor could be a key factor in the Spanish electorate voting for the PP in the Mar04 general election. A time line has emerged with three autonomous regional elections — in Madrid, Catalonia and Andalusia — scheduled for Oct03 and Nov03. The Madrid vote is a re-election due to a failure to appoint a leader for the assembly. Each election is likely to show increasing support for the PP which has made a dramatic come-back from its low standing in the polls early in the year. If the May03 municipal and regional elections were repeated with a swing of two to three percentage points to the PP it would likely be able to have a third term of office without the need for a coalition. The PP Executive will name the successor (though Aznar will choose him) on Oct. 19. Of the four candidates, Jaime Mayor Oreja, head of the Basque regional assembly, is the most popular in Spain and most likely to be selected.

SummaryAsset Conclusions: Next three months to indicate probability of outright PP election win, political risk on Spanish assets set to rise for the moment

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© Graham Bishop