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13 October 2003

EZA 560 - ECB-Monetary




Two main Trichet succession candidates offer different monetary outlooks
Banque de France (BdF) President Jean-Claude Trichet is confirmed to succeed Wim Duisenberg as head of the European Central Bank from Nov. 1. With France having the second greatest political - as well as economic - weight in the ECB Governing Council, Trichet's successor as governor of the BdF will be important in shaping internal ECB policy discussions. Due to the tight time schedule, French President Jacques Chirac should announce the appointment within days. The French chair cannot remain empty for long at the ECB even if the alternate to Trichet could provide temporary continuity. Our original information had indicated that former ECB vice-president Christian Noyer was designated for the BdF post. Yet, even if he is one of the two front runners, his appointment is not now absolutely sure. Current BdF vice-president Hervé Hannoun - and Trichet ECB Council alternate - has strong chances and is the preferred solution of Trichet himself. Broadly, Noyer is a generalist who would add to the 'dovish' camp on the Council; the converse is true of Hannoun. Our information indicates three other names are in the decision-making frame, including EBRD President Jean Lemierre.

SummaryAsset Conclusions: Two leading candidates for BdF governor succession offer differing monetary approaches as potential ECB Council members

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© Graham Bishop

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EZA560.pdf


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