- Euro area GDP +0.4%, driven by Germany and Italy.
- Consumption remains the weak spot in most of the economies, given weak labour markets – and ensuing rising savings.
- Investment spending, which surprisingly contributed to growth in 3Q is likely to remain subdued through 2010 – a recovery can be expected in 2H10 at best.
- The known fiscal-monetary stimulus should be at its peak impact in 4Q09 and 1H10 respectively, helping mitigate a potential weakening of private demand.
Asset conclusions: slowing of growth and deterioration of growth quality likely to have a temporarily negative bearing on risky assets in the euro area.
Please see attached the analysis from Michael Clauss as a pdf file to read onscreen or simply print.
Dr Michael Clauss: Germany Politics / Economy / Equities Sectoral Analysis
Tel: +49 89 64254046
michael.clauss@eurozoneadvisors.com
Discussion Partners
John Arrowsmith: ECB / Regulatory
Tel: +44 7720 59 1726
john.arrowsmith@eurozoneadvisors.com
Dr Michael Clauss: Germany Politics / Economy / Equities Sectoral Analysis
Tel: +49 89 64254046
michael.clauss@eurozoneadvisors.com
© EZA
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