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05 May 2010

EZA 946 Report: ECB Observer




EZA946/05May10: ECB 6 May Council Preview

 

RATES SEEN HELD THROUGH TO END-2010/ 2011 Q1, WHILE SPECIAL CREDIT SUPPORT IS WITHDRAWN AND BOND MARKETS REMAIN IN TURMOIL

·        Zero GDP growth now seen in 2009 Q4, with domestic demand down 0.2%.

·        Economic activity continues weak and patchy at the start of 2010, with inflation notching up to 1.5% in April but still fairly subdued, but business confidence continues to improve.

·        Decline in M3's annual growth rate seems to be petering out and lending to the private sector falls at a slower rate, with loans to non-financial corporations again cut back but mortgage lending to households continues to revive.

·        ECB likely to hold back any rise in official rates on hold until end-2010 or 2011 Q1, wanting first to gauge the market impact of the withdrawal of its special liquidity support.

·        Market reactions to the Greek rescue package likely to be a particular focus for debate.

 

Please see the attached the regular preview from John Arrowsmith to simply read onscreen or print from the attached pdf and read at your convenience

 

Discussion Partners

 

Dr Michael Clauss: Politics / Economy / Equities Sectoral Analysis
Tel: +49 89 64254046

michael.clauss@eurozoneadvisors.com

 

John Arrowsmith: ECB / Regulatory

Tel: +44 7720 59 1726

john.arrowsmith@eurozoneadvisors.com

© Eurozone Advisors Ltd

Documents associated with this article

EZA946.pdf


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