EZA 652: ECB Council Preview January 2005 - data update

11 January 2005

ECB - Data reinforces EZA view: balance has tilted away from inflation concerns, rates likely on hold into 2006
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SummaryStagnant retail sales and confidence indicators point to stalled growth in Q4'04 New data reinforce our view that argument in the Governing Council has tilted a little away from inflation risks but not sufficiently for a cut to be considered Inflation and producer price data give mixed signals. Conclusion: no rate rise likely, even into 2006, and no cut expected unless US$ crash or unforeseen Eurozone recession.

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© Graham Bishop