EZA 658 - ECB Council Preview February 2005

02 February 2005

No rate change expected Thursday: Growth weak, inflation contained but liquidity excessive rates on hold to end 2005
no change in interest rates in prospect at next Governing Council meeting Latest data suggest balance of debate tilting back slightly towards inflation concerns, reinforced by continuing strong money growth but..... demand and cost pressures remain subdued and inflation expectations ease. More hawkish tone from Trichet likely but..... expect rates to stay on hold barring US$ crash/oil hike until growth returns close to trent - late 2005 or early 2006

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© Graham Bishop