EZA 731 Briefing note:

29 March 2006

Italy - Politics

Key issues of the upcoming elections Two weeks before the 9 April general elections opinion polls see a 5% majority for the centre-left opposition (Unione) led by Romano Prodi in the lower house and an even thinner one in the Senate. The transition to a proportional vote reduces the chance of gaining a substantial majority in both houses for any party grouping; hence one should not rule out a third outcome: a coalition between parties of different camps. The president – who will be elected in a parliamentary assembly in May 06 – may have a key role in brokering and guaranteeing a government arrangement. In the case of an ambiguous outcome a re-election of incumbent Ciampi for half a term is likely. Under any of the three alternative government arrangements chances for reforms in key policy areas such as fiscal and labour market seems limited. But the credibility of Prodi seems to be generally higher than that of the incumbent Berlusconi government.

© Graham Bishop