EZA 533 - Spain-Politics

27 May 2003

Strong showing in regional/municipal ballot boost chances of PP win in Spain 2004 general election
The landslide vote in this Sunday’s regional and municipal elections in Spain against the ruling centre-right Partido Popular did not materialise. When the last votes were counted on Monday the PP had taken 33.8% of the vote against 34.7% for the socialist PSOE; a shift of less than one percentage point from the 1999 elections. Previously, opinion polls had forecast a strong victory for PSOE leader José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero on the basis of Prime Minister José María Aznar’s unpopular commitment to the war in Iraq this spring (EZA rpt 519/03Apr9). If this is the best the PSOE can do so soon after Iraq — and a war almost universally opposed by Spaniards — then the PP look set for another win in the general elections in Mar04.

Factors working for the PP in the regional/municipal election will do so again in the general elections: a strong economy, a determined stand on terrorism and a right wing agenda on law and order and immigration. The wild card in the PP’s election chances will be Aznar’s successor — Madrid mayor-elect Alberto Ruíz-Gallardón, we think, could well be the next PP leader.

SummaryAsset Conclusions: A PP win - particularly an outright win - in the 2004 general election should help Spanish assets outperform longer term.

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© Graham Bishop