EZA Report 923: Euro area GDP growth in 3Q09 – extended bounce rather than sustained recovery

25 November 2009

• Euro area GDP +0.4%, driven by Germany and Italy.
• Consumption remains the weak spot in most of the economies, given weak labour markets – and ensuing rising savings.
• Investment spending, which surprisingly contributed to growth in 3Q is likely to remain subdued through 2010 – a recovery can be expected in 2H10 at best.
• The known fiscal-monetary stimulus should be at its peak impact in 4Q09 and 1H10 respectively, helping mitigate a potential weakening of private demand.

 

Asset conclusions: slowing of growth and deterioration of growth quality likely to have a temporarily negative bearing on risky assets in the euro area.

 

Please see attached the analysis from Michael Clauss as a pdf file to read onscreen or simply print.

  

Dr Michael Clauss: Germany Politics / Economy / Equities Sectoral Analysis
Tel: +49 89 64254046

michael.clauss@eurozoneadvisors.com

 

Discussion Partners

 

John Arrowsmith: ECB / Regulatory

Tel: +44 7720 59 1726

john.arrowsmith@eurozoneadvisors.com

 

Dr Michael Clauss: Germany Politics / Economy / Equities Sectoral Analysis
Tel: +49 89 64254046

michael.clauss@eurozoneadvisors.com

 

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