The European Banking Authority (EBA) published today its quarterly Risk Dashboard covering Q2 2020 data and summarising the main risks and vulnerabilities in the EU banking sector.
Whereas capital
ratios held up well, there are indications that the crisis starts to
have an impact on asset quality. With increasing cost of risk,
profitability continued its declining trend.
The CET1 ratio increased on a fully loaded basis by 30bps to 14.7%,
recovering around half of the decline in the former quarter. The rise
of the capital ratios was supported by a contraction in risk weighted
assets (RWAs), which was due, among other reasons, to regulatory
measures like the amendments in the SME support factor. The leverage
ratio slightly contracted, from 5.2% in Q1 to 5.1%, on a fully loaded
basis, driven by an increase in total assets. The declining trend of
RWAs, despite a rise in total assets, indicates also that risk weights
of new exposures tend to be lower, like for instance for deposits with
central banks and guaranteed loans, which were key drivers for the
increase of loans and advances in Q2.
Non-performing loans (NPLs) stopped their multi-year declining trend,
moving slightly up in the last quarter. However, due to the increase in
total loans and advances, the NPL ratio remained roughly stable. The
forbearance ratio increased slightly from 1.9% in the former quarter to
2.0%. The impact of rising forborne exposures was mitigated by a nearly
similar rise in total loans and advances. Cost of risk also remains
elevated during this quarter. The share of stage 2 loans rose from 7% in
Q1 to 8.2% in Q2. Looking forward, asset quality remains a key risk
amid the unfolding Covid-19 related crisis.
Return on equity (RoE) declined further to 0.5% from 1.3% in Q1.
Whereas impairments were the key driver for the contraction of
profitability, also net interest income as well as fee and commission
income declined. The cost to income ratio (CIR) declined significantly
from 71.8% to 66.7%. Elevated impairments will presumably remain a key
drag on banks' profitability, with Covid-19 impairment overlays playing a
prominent role.
Revenues might also remain under pressure, driven by
the prolonged low rate environment and publicly-guaranteed new lending,
which is presumably granted at lower rates than similar non-guaranteed
loans. A resurgence of misconduct costs is a permanent risk, not least
during times of crisis. Banks might also face challenges related to
restructuring costs or the need for investments in information and
communication technology (ICT), amid the growing relevance of digital
banking.
Notes to editors
The figures included in the Risk Dashboard are based on a sample of
147 banks, covering more than 80% of the EU banking sector (by total
assets), at the highest level of consolidation, while country aggregates
also include large subsidiaries (the list of banks can be found here).
Stage 2 loans, as referred to above, are exposures for which the credit
risk has increased significantly after their initial recognition.
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