Market data – Beneath the headlines; The big picture; Asset classes; Russian Dolls and French “élan”; A transformation of the mood music; The Noyer Report; A European Fannie Mae?; News you may have missed
• Data shows the volume of placed European securitisation (EU and UK) is up by an extremely impressive 60% year-on-year. Are we finally seeing the take-off that some observers (mainly in the regulatory community) have been promising as the natural consequences of central bank QT?
• It should be noted that some of the strong 1H24 numbers will have been flattered by originators front-running their funding needs. With elections in the EU in June and, more significantly, in the US in November almost everyone is of the view that the second half of the year could well be tumultuous. So, getting your deals off early is good advice and there is evidence it is advice a number of issuers have heeded. Yet, it would be churlish to attribute the y-o-y growth solely to such front-running.
• Sadly for the proponents of a post-QT take-off, a closer look at the numbers somewhat undermines that narrative. First, for those hoping for a return of a plain-vanilla, broad based, traditional (and, STS) placed market, pretty much the entire 60% growth in placed term paper has occurred in two areas: the UK and CLOs. And, even in the UK, much of that growth has not been in traditional RMBS but in buy-to-let and non-conforming....
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