European Union leaders face two months of tough bargaining on money, power and the future governance of the eurozone before they can boost confidence that the existential threat to the single currency has faded.
French President François Hollande may have been a little premature in declaring a turning point last week after another night of summit negotiation yielded a deal for a eurozone banking regulator to be launched next year. "We are on track to solve the problems that for too long have been paralysing the eurozone and made it vulnerable", said Hollande. "I again have confirmation that the worst is behind us."
More nights of horse-trading lie ahead between now and mid-December in which EU states must agree on a common budget for the next seven years, closer fiscal union with more intrusive central supervision of national budgets, and a possible separate budget for the eur zone, and more support for the most vulnerable euro states.
They will need to decide how to keep Greece afloat if, as expected, it reaches a deal with international creditors to avoid bankruptcy next month in exchange for more drastic spending cuts and structural reforms. And they may face months of uncertainty over whether Spain, which has already been promised up to €100 billion in loans to recapitalise its ailing banks, can avoid a sovereign bailout.
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