If incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte wins the election in the Netherlands, he will have to make concessions in what are likely to be difficult coalition talks.
Even if Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the VVD manages a victory in the end, German Chancellor Angela Merkel could still lose an important ally in the fight for stricter European fiscal policy. So far, the Dutch have stood at Germany's side when it comes to disciplining the eurozone's troubled members. But difficult coalition talks loom for austerity advocate Rutte, who is likely to see his popularity slide, forcing him to make concessions to coalition partners.
The Dutch democratic system is highly susceptible to homemade crises. In the recent past, no coalition has managed to govern for a full legislative period. Most recently the prime minister's minority government collapsed after right-wing populist Geert Wilders of the Party for Freedom (PVV) announced it would no longer cooperate with the coalition. In recent weeks, it appears that voters have been desperately searching for alternatives to the established parties.
The opposition Socialist Party (SP) is having its moment in the sun with its jovial leading candidate, 50-year-old Boxmeer elementary school teacher Emile Roemer. The former Maoist offshoot party has seen its popularity double among voters with its broad euroscepticism. Roemer has spoken out polemically against the European Commission's austerity dictates, which call for the country to reduce its budget deficit to under 3 per cent of gross domestic product next year.
On the one side there is Prime Minister Rutte, who wants to impose the toughest austerity measures seen in modern Dutch history. And on the other, there is Socialist Roemer, who wants to rack up even more debt. Meanwhile, Labour Party candidate Samsom represents a balance between those extremes. His message is one of cost-cutting within reason, and it appeals to the business community. "The great era of polarisation is over", says Bernard Wientjes, the head of the Dutch employers association, adding that he hopes for "a step back towards the centre".
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