23 May 2018

European Semester 2018 Spring Package: Commission issues recommendations for Member States to achieve sustainable, inclusive and long-term g

The 2018 country-specific recommendations

The recommendations focus on strengthening the foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth in the long term. They build on the comprehensive analysis carried out by the Commission in the latest Country Reports, which highlighted legacy issues in certain Member States arising from the financial crisis and challenges for the future.

The improved economic context allows to focus on a renewed set of priorities, and this window of opportunity should be used to do what is necessary in a domestic context, bearing in mind the close interdependence of the EU economies, notably those of the euro area.

In particular, the Commission calls on Member States to pursue structural reforms that improve the business environment and conditions for investment, especially through product and service market reforms, supporting innovation, improving small- and medium-sized enterprises' access to finance and fighting corruption.

Member States should also strengthen economic resilience in the context of long-term challenges, such as demographic trends, migration and climate change. Only resilient economies can ensure long-term economic convergence and the reduction of disparities.

This year, the recommendations dedicate special attention to social challenges, guided by the European Pillar of Social Rightsproclaimed in November 2017. There is a particular focus on ensuring the provision of adequate skills, the effectiveness and adequacy of social safety nets and improving social dialogue.

Countries are also recommended to carry out reforms that prepare their workforces for the future, including future forms of work and increasing digitalisation; reduce income inequalities; and create employment opportunities, for young people in particular.

Progress on implementation of recommendations

Since the start of the European Semester in 2011, Member States have either implemented fully or made some or substantial progress on more than two-thirds of the country-specific recommendations.They have made most headway in financial services, reflecting the priority given to the stabilisation of the financial sector in response to the economic and financial crisis. There has also been a high implementation rate of reforms to promote job creation on permanent contracts and address labour market segmentation. On the other hand, recommendations in the area of health and long-term care and broadening the tax base have not yet been addressed to the same extent. More efforts are also needed to improve the inclusiveness and quality of education.

Under the mandate of this Commission, the European Semester has become increasingly streamlined and inclusive, but Member States' track record in the implementation of the recommendations still falls short of expectations. To further support Member States in the implementation of agreed reforms, the Commission is proposing an enhanced set of budgetary tools.

Macroeconomic imbalances continue to be corrected

The correction of macroeconomic imbalances continues, but some sources of imbalances remain unaddressed and new risks have emerged. While current account deficits have been corrected in several countries, persistent surpluses in other Member States remain broadly unchanged. Deleveraging is taking place at an uneven pace, with private, public and external debt levels remaining high in some Member States. Keeping debt on a solid declining path is crucial to reduce vulnerabilities in these countries. In a growing number of Member States, challenges linked to strong house price increases require close monitoring.

In March 2018, the Commission concluded that eight Member States were experiencing imbalances(Bulgaria, France, Germany, Ireland, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden) and that three countries were experiencing excessive imbalances (Croatia, Italy and Cyprus). As in previous years, specific monitoring will take place for all of these Member States. This will enable the Commission to follow policy action closely in the context of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure, with the depth of this monitoring process reflecting the scope of the challenges and the severity of the imbalances.

Review of the flexibility under existing rules of the Stability and Growth Pact

In 2015, the Commission issued guidance on the best use of flexibility under the existing rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. Based on this guidance, a Commonly Agreed Position on Flexibility was endorsed by the ECOFIN Council in 2016. This required the Commission to review the application of the so-called "structural reform clause" and "investment clause" by the end of June 2018.

The review concludes that the key objectives of the Commission guidance and of the Commonly Agreed Position on Flexibility have been met to a large extent.Experience shows that the practice of this flexibility allowed the right balance to be struck between ensuring prudent fiscal policy and stabilising the economy.The aggregate deficit level in the euro area is set to fall to 0.7% of GDP this year, down from a peak of 6.3% of GDP in 2009. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall from 94.2% in 2014 to 86.5% in 2018.

For the future, this approach encourages Member States to increase their fiscal effort in good times to make EU's economies more resilient. With the economic expansion in Europe in its fifth year, the time is ripe to build up fiscal buffers.

Guidance and decisions under the Stability and Growth Pact

Based on the assessment of the 2018 Stability and Convergence Programmes, the country-specific recommendations provide fiscal policy guidance for Member States in 2019.

The Commission has also taken a number of steps under the Stability and Growth Pact.

The Commission recommends that the Excessive Deficit Procedure be closed for France. This would leave only one Member State (Spain) in the corrective arm of the Pact, down from 24 countries in 2011.

The Commission also adopted reports for Belgium and Italy under Article 126(3) TFEU, in which it reviews their compliance with the debt criterion of the Treaty. In the case of Italy, the analysis suggests that the debt criterion should be considered as currently complied with, notably as Italy was found broadly compliant with the preventive arm of the Pact in 2017. For Belgium, as there is no sufficiently robust evidence to conclude that Belgium did not comply with the preventive arm requirements, the report could not fully conclude as to whether the debt criterion is or is not complied with. The Commission will reassess next year the two countries' compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of the ex-post data for 2018, to be notified in spring 2019.

The Commission addressed a warning to Hungary and Romania on the existence of a significant deviation from the adjustment path toward the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) in 2017. The Commission proposes that the Council adopt a recommendation for Hungary to take appropriate measures in 2018 with a view to correcting this significant deviation. For Romania, which is already subject to a significant deviation procedure, the Commission recommends that the Council issue a decision on non-effective action and a recommendation to take measures in 2018 and 2019 to correct the significant deviation.

The Commission also publishes today its Opinion of the updated Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) for Spain, as the one submitted last October was based on a “no policy change” scenario. The Commission considers the updated Draft Budgetary Plan is broadly compliant with the requirements under the Stability and Growth Pact, since the Commission's Spring 2018 forecast projects that Spain's headline deficit will be below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP in 2018. Nonetheless, the Opinion notes that neither the headline deficit target nor the fiscal effort called for in the 2016 Council notice are projected to be met this year. [...]

Full press release

Remarks by Vice-President Dombrovskis at the European Semester Spring Package press conference

Remarks by Commissioner Moscovici at the European Semester Spring Package press conference

© European Commission