02 January 2013

Gideon Rachman: Britain would vote to stay in the EU

The forces pushing for an eventual British exit from the EU can look formidable. It cannot be denied that the potential exists for a crisis to develop which could push Britain out of the union. Yet the ties that bind Britain into the EU still look more powerful. The most important point is that neither the British government – nor the leading European governments (with the possible exception of France) – actually want Britain to leave the union. If it happened, it would be by accident rather than design.

Mr Cameron has been promising a big speech on Europe for months. But his strategy for keeping the UK inside the EU is fairly clear. He is likely to demand a renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership, involving the repatriation of some powers from Brussels. He will promise to put the result to a referendum, in which voters will be invited to accept the new deal or quit the EU.

The other EU members will not make a British renegotiation easy. But they will probably throw a few token concessions in Mr Cameron’s direction, rather than force Britain out of the union. Then, everything will depend on a British referendum on the new deal. At present the prospects for a Yes vote look superficially unpromising – a majority of British voters tell pollsters they would like to leave the EU.

But the actual vote, after a referendum campaign, would probably be very different. The leaders of all three leading parties – the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems – would campaign in favour of a Yes vote. Ranged against them would be Ukip, a party that Mr Cameron uncharitably – but not entirely inaccurately – in 2006 described as made up of “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”. The No campaign would be bolstered by some of the angrier and less attractive members of the Conservative party. Faced by this line-up, the British public would almost certainly opt for the status quo – staying inside the EU.

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