11 February 2014

The countdown has started: 100 days to go until European elections

The countdown has started: there are 100 days to go until the first polling stations open for the 2014 European elections. The 751 MEPs taking up their seats in July will not only set the course of European policies for the next five years but also elect the leader of the EU's executive body, the European Commission President. The EP's press release explains why these elections are different: the EP will elect the new Commission President. The new political majority emerging from the elections will also shape European legislation over the next five years in areas from the single market to civil liberties. The press release includes an outline of the procedures until a new Commission is appointed. 

Commission President

EPP

As pointed out by EuroIntelligence, Angela Merkel's support for Jean-Claude Juncker is a lot more qualified than the recent news coverage suggested. If the PPE were to win the EP elections, Juncker would be in a natural position to become Commission president. But at this moment Member States might deviate from the script. Juncker also still has to beat Michel Barnier. Jyrki Katainen, the Finnish Prime Minister, has ruled himself out of being the EPP candidate for the Commission presidency, reports Europedecides. According to the agreed procedure, the EPP candidate will first need the support of his own national political party plus a written endorsement by EPP-affiliated parties from at least two other EU countries. The EPP congress was to review candidate’s credentials on 6 February. Then, on 7 March, the 830 voting members of the EPP congress will elect their candidate from those qualified by secret ballot.

For the EP elections, the polls suggest a tight race between conservatives and socialists, led by Martin Schulz. Guy Verhofstadt is the candidate for the liberal ALDE, Alexis Tsipras for the radical European left, Ska Keller and Français José Bové together for the Greens. 

The Economist, however, says that if ever Europe needed a competent reformer with new ideas, it is now. "One person—who is not a declared candidate—would be far better: Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF. She is a French former finance minister, yet her years in Washington dealing with the euro crisis, as well as running a huge law firm in Chicago, give her the clarity of an outsider’s view about what is wrong with the EU. A liberal, she would be keen to complete the single market, promote free trade and cut the burden of regulation. She is also a persuasive saleswoman in both French and English, a bonus given her own country’s sour view of the EU and Britain’s possible referendum on whether to leave. So ignore the parliament, Mrs Merkel, and pick the best woman for the job." Ms Lagarde comes from the centre-right EPP. The Spiegel echoes the article, pointing out the obstacles Ms Lagarde would face. European Commissioner Günther Oettinger (CDU) commented that the EU should be grateful it has a European heading the IMF and that Ms Lagarde is of most use in her present capacity. Furthermore, because of her present position and the IMF's involvement in demanding austerity measures, she is not a very popular figure in some parts of the continent.

Link to the EP’s Video about the Commission President election process

EP’s multilingual web portal on the elections

Election countdown infographic

High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy

Predicting the next high representative to the EU is a difficult task, writes European Voice (subscription required). There are three people whose apparent ambition to succeed Catherine Ashton as high representative stands a chance of success. There are others whose ambition is less openly displayed, and whose chances might be equally good or even better.

The three known aspirants – Radoslaw Sikorski, Frans Timmermans and Miroslav Lajcák – share three things that set them apart from Ashton: they are male, they are foreign ministers, and they are from smaller member states than Ashton, who is British. (Sikorski, from the centre-right, is Polish, Timmermans – a Socialist – is Dutch, and Lajcák, who leans left, comes from Slovakia.) Their gender, on balance, probably goes against them. Their foreign-policy expertise is probably helpful, albeit not in a major way. Their nationality, overall, ought to play in their favour, since smaller nationalities ought to be easier to slot in than big ones.

But none of this will prevent a surprise when national leaders meet to make the final choice. The timing of that choice is perhaps the biggest known unknown in the process. 

Euroscepticism

Reuters writes that high unemployment, austerity fatigue and paltry growth offer the perfect backdrop for fringe parties to prosper at the EU elections. Some pundits predict a group of anti-euro parties including the National Front in France, Britain's UKIP and the Dutch Freedom Party, along with Greece's anti-austerity party Syriza, could capture 20 per cent or more of the seats. That could pressure the European Union's main party groups to tack right and challenge Europe's ability to integrate further, given new powers the parliament will have to rule on the majority of EU legislation.

Manager Magazin reported that in reaction to the Swiss referendum, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has called for a clear distinction between populists and eurosceptics. "We have to be clear in the European elections campaigns that the people have a direct benefit from the freedom of movement, he said to the Stuttgarter Nachrichten.

UK

In a column for the Independent, Nick Clegg, UK’s Deputy Prime Minister, says only the Liberal Democrats are prepared to stand up for Britain's place in Europe - if UKIP wins, he warns, it could wreck the recovery and destroy British jobs. "The Conservatives won't tell you about the risks of EU exit because, deep down, many of them want to pull us out of Europe too. And Labour won't tell you either because it thinks you don't want to hear it. It doesn't have the courage of their convictions and won't lift a finger to keep us in. Both the Conservatives and Labour are seemingly content to let UKIP lead the debate and edge us all slowly towards a state of hopeless isolation. Only the Liberal Democrats are fighting to keep Britain in Europe."

European Voice (subscription required) reports that Labour is set for big win in European elections, according to the latest polls. The British centre-left party would be up 19 per cent from its 2009 result, while UKIP would only be up 3 per cent.

Germany

As reported by Deutsche Welle, Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and the opposition Greens have each selected their (national) front-runner for the European parliamentary elections.

Germany's Christian Democrats (CDU) have chosen David McAllister, the former premier of the German state of Lower Saxony, as their prime candidate. Speaking after the vote, he said he would lead a "good, dynamic campaign", adding that he wanted to differentiate himself clearly from the CDU's coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the anti-euro party Alternative for Germany (AFD). However, as the Stuttgarter Zeitung suggested, he seemed to have AfD-leaning voters in mind when he stated that "we will make it clear that there are very good arguments for European integration and a common currency, but that we simultaneously represent German interests effectively".

The CDU also passed a 77-page election manifesto in which it voices criticism of over-regulation within the European Union and calls for the return of some responsibilities to the national level.

As its choice of prime candidate for the European elections, the opposition Green selected Rebecca Harms, the 57-year-old chairwoman of the Greens' parliamentary party in the European Parliament. Sven Giegold MEP, Member of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, said in an interview with taz that he wanted to run for second position on the electoral list for the Greens, "offering the party the chance for modernisation". He repeats on his website that whereas at German national level the party had already experienced some changes, he would like to see a similar rejuvenation on the European list as well.

Both CDU and Green candidates will enter the fray against SPD top candidate Martin Schulz, 58, currently the president of the European Parliament.