Summary – Open Europe’s take

The reform package being offered to the British public is a step in the right direction. The deal is not transformative, but neither is it trivial. It is the largest single shift in a member state’s position within the EU. The changes help supplement the reforms which have already happened – notably the double majority for Eurozone ins and outs on EU banking rules – and the opt outs which the UK already has on the Euro and Schengen. The UK Government has achieved most of what out it set out to do – though it could have asked for more. That said, it seems unlikely, given the opposition of a number of other member states, that much more substantial change could have been achieved at this point in time. Attention will now turn to arguments on the broader benefits or costs of EU membership, the prospect for future EU reform and the alternatives for the UK outside the EU.

The deal – What has been agreed?

1. Economic governance

Verdict: Given the UK and non-Eurozone states were never going to get a veto on Eurozone proposals the mechanism is probably the best that could have been hoped for. It provides an additional hurdle for Eurozone states to overcome and adds to the political cost of trying to ride roughshod over the non-Eurozone states. The principles are quite wide ranging and if the UK can actively enforce them via the courts, then further account may well be taken of them when drawing up and implementing legislation. The fact that the UK can unilaterally trigger this delaying mechanism is a useful tool – unilateral recourse exists rarely in an institution defined by compromise, especially when it comes to the single market.

2. Competitiveness

Verdict: It was always hard to see exactly what the UK would achieve beyond what is already happening in this area. Positive changes could emerge if the Commission comes forward with concrete proposals on reducing the regulatory burden, better enforcing subsidiarity and improving the single market. The challenge will be implementation, but only time will tell if this actually happens.

3. Sovereignty

3.1 Ever closer union

Verdict: David Cameron has delivered his commitment to exempt Britain from the EU’s commitment to ever closer union. That the EU has been unwilling to entertain a more fundamental debate at this stage about how this concept might be given greater substance owes much to disagreements amongst Eurozone members about how integrated the Single Currency should become and therefore how the responsibilities of member states outside the Eurozone, such as the UK, might differ. Therefore, how much of a turning point this could mark is uncertain.

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3.2 Red card for national parliaments

Verdict: Despite widespread opposition to the ‘Red Card’ in principle, national parliaments have been given a binding role in the EU decision making process. However, due to the high threshold, the ‘Red Card’ will be very difficult to trigger in practice.

4. Migration and access to welfare

Verdict: Cameron has not achieved the complete four-year ‘ban’ on in-work benefits he set out to because migrants’ access to benefits over the four years must be graduated to reflect their integration into the UK labour market. Nevertheless, the ‘emergency brake’ achieves something very close to his original demand when many people on both sides of the debate argued this was politically unfeasible and/or legally impossible. [...]

Similarly, on child benefit, the proposal does not completely ban payment to children abroad, which the UK sought, but reduces the cost by indexing payments to the cost of living in the country where the child is. For those people already in the UK, the indexation will be delayed. It should be noted that several other member states’ seem set to take advantage of the new rules.

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5. Is the deal legally binding and irreversible?

Cameron said he wanted his EU deal to be “legally binding and irreversible”. The European Council conclusions in which the deal is contained state that the “Decision is legally binding” and can only be amended or repealed with the consent of all states including the UK. The overall package is legally binding on EU governments in international law and will take effect once the UK has voted to Remain. However, some of the elements need further action to take effect. This includes the commitments to enshrine the changes to ‘ever closer union’, the principles protecting non-Eurozone members in the EU Treaties when they are next changed and the changes on EU migrants’ access to welfare via secondary legislation. [...]

Full article on Open Europe