But there is another interpretation of the British agreement: the path toward ever-closer union has been decided. If the EU wants to move toward what it was intended to be—an integrated Europe—it now has only one way to achieve that. It’s called a two-speed Europe. The faster track could consist of the nineteen members of the eurozone, or fewer countries, as a kind of coalition of the willing to keep the EU project afloat.

Certainly, if the British voted to leave the union, the EU would be terribly weakened. Most leaders of the other EU member states know that. The only glimmer of hope from a Brexit vote is that it just might convince the majority of EU countries to opt for a tighter, more integrated Europe. That seems a pipe dream given the Euroskeptic mood in several countries, particularly in Central Europe. National sovereignty and the renationalization of asylum and refugee policy, and even foreign policy, is the order of the day.

As it is, many European governments are unwilling to understand that an integrated Europe would give the EU the political and economic clout it needs. Somehow they believe that a disaggregated Europe with the trappings of the free movement of labor, capital, and services is enough. [...] Brexit or not, Cameron has obtained from the EU almost everything he wanted. The most important is that Britain will not support an ever-closer union. [...]

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and especially German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble must surely realize the impact the deal with Britain will have on the EU’s future. [...]

In short, the threat of Brexit forced the EU to make concessions. The National Front is now playing with the idea of a so-called Frexit, or a French departure from the eurozone. That shows the fragility of one of the founding members of the EU. [...]

However, a two-speed Europe will be possible only with France and Germany working much more closely together. As it is, they differ on many issues concerning Europe’s future, especially how to strengthen the eurozone.

No progress on political or economic integration can be expected until after the French presidential election that will take place in 2017. By then, it will be time for Germans to vote for a new federal parliament. In the interim, more time gained for Euroskeptics. More time lost for integrationists.

Full article on Carnegie Europe