26 February 2016

The Independent: Brexit voters more likely to turn out in force

The campaign for Britain to leave the EU enjoys an eight-point lead when people’s likelihood to vote is taken into account, according to a poll for The Independent.

ORB’s findings are a blow to David Cameron, and confirm his allies’ fears that people who want to withdraw from the EU are more likely to vote in the June referendum – a factor that could prove decisive. They suggest that opinion has hardened against EU membership since the Prime Minister agreed a “new settlement” with fellow EU  leaders a week ago.

Some 52 per cent of people said they would vote to leave, with 48 per cent saying they would back remaining, the exact opposite of last month’s findings. People were also asked how likely they were to vote in the June referendum on a scale of one to 10.  When the figures were weighted, with a 10/10 score given a full percentage point and 9/10 given  0.9 of a point, the Leave total went up to 54 per cent and Remain fell to 46 per cent. [...]

Scotland appears more engaged in the EU debate than other parts of Britain, with 78 per cent of Scots saying they would definitely vote, higher than the overall  69 per cent figure.

ORB, which questioned 2,000 people on 24 and 25 February, found that Boris Johnson’s decision to support Brexit made one in four people (26 per cent) more likely to vote to leave, a significant figure, while 60 per cent disagreed. More people (48 per cent) agreed with the Mayor of London’s statement that “the only way to get the change we need with the EU” is to vote to leave, than disagreed (37 per cent). This suggests that voters might be open to the idea,  floated by Mr Johnson, of voting Out in June in the hope of forcing the EU to concede a better deal for Britain before a second referendum.  A majority of people who voted Conservative at last year’s election (54 per cent) agreed that the only way to secure the necessary change is to vote to leave.

Full article on The Independent

© The Independent