13 April 2016

OMFIF: Polish euro threat if Brits say No

British eurosceptics need to consider that, if the UK leaves, then the group of other member countries like Poland that wish to stay outside the euro might come under irresistible pressure to join monetary union, even though that would be in neither Poland’s nor the EU’s interest.

[...]To safeguard Poland from such an ill-fated choice, British critics of monetary union might be advised to temper their antagonism and ensure that Britain continues to fight for reforms from within rather than outside the EU.

The Poles are grateful to the UK for letting so many Polish citizens come to Britain to find a better place to live since EU accession in 2004. [...]

On the other hand, many Poles have been offended by populist remarks by David Cameron, the British prime minster, about foreigners allegedly abusing British social benefits. And some in Warsaw doubt Britain’s ability to support Poland’s geopolitical interests if European turmoil broke out again, for example in relations with Russia. [...]

The Warsaw government wants to be more assertive towards Brussels. The UK’s European policies suit its vision. Many in Warsaw have the impression that the Polish government would like to replace Berlin with London as Poland’s strategic ally in Europe. This may be a risky strategy. [...]

The strength and durability of the relationship with London will depend on the June vote. Fostering links with an EU member renowned for its scepticism is one thing; strengthening ties with an EU secessionist is another.

Warsaw would have no option but to put distance between itself and London if a UK exit paves the way for closer European integration. A continental hard-core of member states would see British departure as a golden opportunity to press on with ‘ever closer union’. The dilemma for Poland would be excruciating. But, at a time of tension with Russia over Ukraine and other issues, the Poles would find it very hard not to go with the European mainstream.

The EU is not flawless. But these deficiencies should not make us overlook its advantages. There was a loud sigh of relief in Britain when Scotland opted to remain in the UK in September 2014. This sigh will be echoed across Europe if the British stay in after June. [...]

Full article on OMFIF

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