14 October 2016

EPC: Countering a regressive & illiberal Europe

In this paper, drafted as an input to the discussions at the EPC Strategic Council and the EPC’s 20th Anniversary Conference, Janis A. Emmanouilidis and Fabian Zuleeg discuss the future of the European project, and what’s actually at stake.

After the Brexit vote and the collective failure to predict the impending earthquake and ‘sign of times’, it would be a mistake to carry on as if nothing had happened. Although the UK is undoubtedly a special case, there is a need to reflect more fundamentally on the state of European integration and its future prospects. Next year’s commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome provides a good opportunity to ask some fundamental questions: Where do we stand? What can we expect? What is the biggest threat? And how could we respond? 

For many years, the EU has been in the grip of a fundamental crisis which has threatened historic achievements of European integration. Despite some remarkable steps forward which would have been unthinkable before the storm struck, none of the complex and interlinked crises that have buffeted the Union have been structurally resolved and the EU and its members are suffering from the collateral damage caused by the poly-crisis: fragmentation, distrust, increased divergence, social and political cleavages, inability to fairly balance national interests, reputational damage, as well as frustration with today’s Union. At the same time, the EU has been remarkably resilient. Sixty years on, European integration has become part of most of Europe’s collective DNA. Its benefits, and ever-growing interdependence, would make it extremely costly to abandon or radically scale back the European project. So, given the current state of the Union, what potential paths are open to the EU in the years to come?

‘Muddling through’ remains the most likely path for the foreseeable future. This does not mean a standstill, but rather implies an incremental step-by-step process driven by immediate pressures, but based on lowest common denominator approaches and without a clear, proactive vision of the future. There are strong arguments as to why a higher level of cooperation and integration, and more discretionary powers at EU level, would be more effective in responding to the challenges facing Europe. But we are unlikely to witness a qualitative leap forward any time soon, given the fragmentation and distrust between member states and the negative public climate in most EU countries. But will ‘muddling through’ be enough? To answer this question, one needs to take a step back and pose a more fundamental question: what is the biggest threat facing Europe and what are the key factors fuelling it?

What is at stake is much more than the EU itself: it is the danger of a regressive and illiberal Europe – a Europe in which key values, orientations, norms, and principles are being undermined. A Europe that becomes increasingly nationalistic, protectionist, discriminatory, xenophobic, intolerant and authoritarian. A Europe that is backward- and inward-looking, more inclined to oppose globalisation, trade and exchange, migration, heterogeneity, cultural diversity, self-determination, and the principles of an open society. A ‘closed Europe’ in which the influence of those advocating simplistic solutions to complex challenges is increasing, with their political rhetoric and ideology framing or even dominating the public discourse.

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