07 November 2018

Fondation Robert Schuman: European Elections 2019: what will the new Parliament's composition be?

The departure of the British MEPs and the weakening of the main parties will lead to a new situation in the European Parliament after next May's elections, a crucial time for the Union, writes Pascale Joannin.

PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS

Electoral turnout

Some hope that the international context and the challenges that Europe faces right now will encourage a rise in electoral turnout. This time round there will be good reason to strengthen the only institution in the Union to be elected by direct universal suffrage and to go and vote. Citizens and even governments are starting to organise themselves with this in view. Initiatives are now emerging to encourage electoral turnout. Will it be enough to bring the long-term trend to an end?

The progression of the nationalists

In these European elections an historic breakthrough by the extremists, populists and nationalists has been forecast, with the latter not being by nature extremely in favour of Europe, their victory has already been announced for May 2019. However, this is a somewhat hasty analysis and illustrates poor knowledge of the European election method.

Undoubtedly, they will gain ground if the results that they have won recently at national level are confirmed. But it is highly likely that they will remain divided in several groups. Apart from the fact they all want to protect their own private corner (the Poles of the PiS the ECR, La Lega its group and MS5 its own one), they will hesitate before joining other “anti-system” movements with characteristics that are so different. Finally, their overall progress will remain at the end limited. Those of the parties from the big countries, like Italy will probably record the greatest gains in comparison with 2014. In most of the other Member States their wins in terms of seats will be fewer and the same national specificities will remain, thereby making rapprochement difficult. There remains the case of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) whose 7 MEPs from 2014 sit in three different groups and only one of whom still bears the AfD label!

A REFORM MADE NECESSARY

A new majority

The most recent forecasts suggest 180 seats for the EPP and 137 for the S&D, and these two main parties with 317 seats will no longer hold the absolute majority (353) in the European Parliament.

The New Situation

This unusual situation will therefore lead to a more open political negotiation to find a compromise with other partners. Who might take this role?

The Greens have witnessed an improvement in their results quite recently in the local elections in Belgium, in the German Länder of Bavaria and Hessen and during the legislative elections in Luxembourg (the only party in the outgoing government coalition to win any seats (+ 3)). They can reasonably expect to have more weight in the European Parliament. They have 52 seats at present. However, present forecasts suggest they will lose 9 seats (of which 6 are British). They would therefore bring quite the minimum required number of votes to form a majority … which is very risky.

More plausible is the scenario of a coalition with the Liberals. Firstly because the latter already took part in the majority between 1999-2004 and also because, following the departure of the British (which will not affect them very much, they only have one MEP), they could become the third biggest group in numbers of seats after 2019, since the ECR will probably fall below the 50 seat mark due to the loss of 19 British MEPs. [...]

The liberal group has 68 seats in the present Parliament. It could draw close to the hundred seat mark if it succeeds in federating more widely than today. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) is made up of two parties: the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), and the European Democratic Party (EDP). Seven prime ministers come from its ranks (the Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Estonia and Luxembourg). It comprises 8 Spanish MEPs including Ciudadanos, 7 Frenchmen including Modem and the UDI, 4 Germans from the FDP and the Freie Wähler. If Cuidadanos succeeds in achieving the score predicted by the polls (21%), it might become the group’s lead delegation, unless the group attracts the Italian Democratic Party. En Marche might also decide to join it. This is a question that intrigues European circles. Where does it lie in the European arena? The most recent polls forecast that this party will lead in the French results (21.5%) and the outcome of the election will greatly depend on the French domestic situation and on the popularity of Emmanuel Macron.

Many wonder about Emmanuel Macron’s strategy, as he openly campaigns for Europe and as Viktor Orban and Matteo Salvini have designated him as “the enemy number one” simultaneously. If he manages to win on 26th May in France, he might emerge as one the main winner of this election, weighing over the majority and by taking part in the distribution of major responsibilities within the common institutions.

A process to be reshuffled

In 2014, in a bid to counter the disaffection of the electorate in the European election, Brussels came up with the idea of the “Spitzenkandidat”, which no one tried to translate into one of the 24 Union languages so that it would be understood by voters to whom he was to address himself. First mistake. Europe is not only German speaking! [...]

With the programmed end of the EPP/S&D duopoly, the process will probably be even harder to implement in 2019. The candidate who is appointed during the European political party congresses will have to be accepted by the other parties that will make up the majority. Moreover, E. Macron and A. Merkel have already expressed their doubts about the legitimacy of this procedure. Indeed, according to the terms of the treaties, it is the European Council of Heads of State and government who appoint the executives of the common institutions, even if they have to be approved by the European Parliament.

Moreover is the parliamentary principle, whereby the head of the party that wins obligatorily becomes Prime Minister, for example as in the UK, well applied to the European institutions, whilst some parties that have come out ahead in the recent national elections have not been appointed automatically to lead the government of their country (cf. Luxembourg in 2013 and Portugal in 2015)?

Finally, bringing Europe closer to its citizens is an imperative that is difficult to reconcile with appointments made via political parties, and therefore by a small number of active members, of its highestranking leaders.

In a trio no one doubts that discussions after the election will go well.

Until now the traditional distribution of roles has been made according to political labels and geographical balances. In 2014 the EPP won the Presidency of the European Commission (Luxembourg) and that of the European Council (Poland), the S&D got the first part of the Presidency of the European Parliament (Germany),  the post of first Vice-President of the Commission (The Netherlands) and that of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (Italy). The latter post was finally given to a woman.

Undoubtedly, we shall now have to add other criteria to this, for example, making more room for women. Why not as the head of the European Commission, even if the candidates are nearly all masculine? It is not certain that the post-election consultations between the various parties will lead to the appointment of officially declared candidates and they would be well advised to take the imperative of parity more seriously – since this is now indivisible from true representativeness, i.e. legitimacy.

Likewise, it will no longer be possible to divide the Presidency of the European Parliament into two and it might be a problem to divide it into three! It would be a welcome novelty for the institution’s stability to attribute the whole legislature of five years to a person designated according to his or her moral authority or experience. Again, it would be symbolic to appoint a woman. We might recall that only two women have occupied this position in the last 40 years. Simone Veil from 1979 to 1982 and Nicole Fontaine from 1999 to 2002. How much time will we have to wait for this to happen again?

Finally, by chance the calendar would have it that the 8-year mandate of the President of the European Central Bank will be up in 2019. Hence there will be six important positions in the European executive that will have to be filled. And rest assured, that Heads of State and government will – as often is the case – have the last word.

It is probably one of the hopes of the French President, who is counting on the new situation created by this atypical and unusual state of affairs. Given the rise of extremes, populists and nationalists, he hopes to federate the parties on the centre-right and centre-left which have pronounced clear European views.

His arrival in office in France upset the traditional political forces and some fear that he will do the same in the European arena. Many observers admit that the Union can no longer continue to function as it has done in the past. He might want to be one of those who help towards settling this complicated equation of the European consensus, by supporting the constitution of a stable political and institutional majority for the five years to come. As for the electorate it is hoped that they are aware of what is at stake in the election which, this time, is different and that given the external and internal challenges being made to the European Union many will turn out to ballot. 

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