14 May 2019

Fondation Robert Schuman: Between China and the USA, Europe seeks its future

The clash between the US and China has become the central point of tension in international relations, with a different intensity from that of the Cold War, given its nature, which is both economic and military. It is here that new, world geopolitical balances are slowly falling into place.

A MORE LUCID, REALISTIC EUROPE.

Between an America, which has lost sight of its universal vocation and China, which is concerned with promoting the rules of a new world order in line with its interests, Europe can see that it is in danger of being the grand loser in this game. In the race that has already started to shape new globalisation the European Union has got off to a bad start. But it is a test of durability in which the Europeans can still win if they manage to find their place in the arena in which two major world powers face each other. 

To do this Europe, as a priority, needs to position itself in the globalised world as a credible player, which is determined to assume responsibilities and the duties that Europeans have not always accepted in the past. This assertion of power does not find consensus amongst all of the Member States. The latter, given the rivalry of the US and China, are not necessarily ready to agree on what the place and role of Europe in the concert of nations should be. This debate is an old one; it was the very origin of the European project, when the Founding Fathers designed Europe as an organisation of universal vocation, a vehicle for values and principles, often presented in opposition to the interests – deemed egotist – of the Member States. Hence, the slow progress made by Europe has always avoided adopting an excessively powerful profile, i.e hard power, and has preferred soft power, more interested in humanitarian assistance and aid than in the development of military operations or major geopolitical ambitions. This is the original matrix of the European Union and this genetic stamp cannot be shaken off easily.

To remedy this shortfall the nature of the challenges that Europe is facing have to be defined to gain greater awareness of all the dangers that weigh over the Union’s future. The issues at stake are indeed of size for Europe, which must imperatively remain in the race for technological innovation, whether this involves digital, robotics or artificial intelligence, if it intends to remain competitive in tomorrow’s economy. Beyond this the same challenges apply in terms of giving Europe a currency and a system of defence for it to be truly self-sufficient and to protect the foundations of the legal system which forms the base of its democratic model. It is the risk of irreversible decline that the Europeans now face if they cannot take control of their future. And it is this that the leaders of Europe and public opinion have to realise.

Another imperative for Europe is to find a balance in its ambitions. It must not do too much or fall into total inertia. Consequently, it must realistically define what is possible in its international action and stick to this, even if this means leaving the management of high intensity crises like in Syria and Ukraine to the Member States, for which it is not best armed. The example of success in this area lies in the action undertaken by Europeans to turn the general European regulation to protect personal data into a balanced model which is gradually taking hold across the world. It is action of this type that must prevail in areas in which Europe can hope to make its voice heard.

- innovation, where European budget appropriations have to be mobilised immediately so as not to lose sight of future priority areas of research; - international trade in which Europe has enough authority to take vital reform forward for the adoption of free-trade agreements that include more social justice and sustainable growth; - climate change with the quest for a careful sharing of the work to be done between carbon tax and innovative action for urbanism that is more concerned with ecological balance; - immigration, still a stumbling block for the Union, but the solutions that it will necessarily find, could forge a path to conciliation, whose difficulties clearly appeared during the adoption of the Global Migration Compact but which the international community urgently needs. In the end it is a new economic and social model, one that is more balanced and fairer that the Europeans must bring to the international stage in contribution to the definition of the new world order

Europe is probably one of the best placed actors to do this thanks to its political and historical tradition

To this end Europeans have many assets. They have natural allies, from Canada to Japan, not forgetting Australia, Indonesia; Singapore and South Korea. They have the leverage, such as the influence of the single European Market or the experience acquired in the implementation of its common trade policy. Finally, they have the capacity to define a line of conciliation between the opposing forces in the global economy. Europe has always been – via its ACP negotiations or even in its agreements with the countries of Asia and Latin America, a constructive partner which has succeeded in building bridges. And it is this state of mind that is respectful of others and careful in terms of social justice, economic balance that the globalised world needs most and which for Europe must be a priority if it is to reconcile with its public opinion.

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Between the two world powers, the USA and China, which each in their own way, and according to their own interests, want to shape the new world order, Europe seems a priori, badly placed to join this “Concert of Big Players”. It remains divided and doubts in the face of a fractured world, which is not its natural area of action. And yet Europe has a political message of balance and tolerance, which undoubtedly remains the best possible answer to the multitude of challenges that are threatening the community of nations. Its problem lies in convincing itself that it must shoulder this responsibility, and to do this it has to be in working order to overcome the divisions and rebellions which are now attacking it. Evidently the challenge is considerable, but the continuation of the European project comes at this price. 

Full policy paper

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