27 February 2020

UK in a Changing Europe: Germany: its struggling centre-right and what it means for Europe and Brexit

After an eventful February, Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) are – yet again – looking for a new party leader. As Chancellor Angela Merkel’s era is nearing its end, the answer will also have repercussions for Germany and its relations with Europe, and potentially for Brexit.

[...]when the CDU came under fire earlier this month for accepting the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to replace the left-wing minister president in Thuringia, the SPD was quick to analyse its partner’s problems. Saskia Esken, one of two recently elected SPD leaders, suggested the CDU needed to clarify its relationship to the AfD, especially via its national-conservative wing, the “Values Union”, and reconsider its view of the Left Party as a less than democratic parliamentary force. The SPD’s advice may have been unwelcome, but it was not without a basis.

Leading a ‘Volkspartei’?

The CDU’s openness to more radical positions and its willingness to collaborate with parties on the political fringes are, indeed, key questions that the party needs to answer. Leaving this void makes it difficult to agree on programmatic and electoral strategies, especially in light of increasingly diverse political constellations in the 16 German states and the foreseeable end of the grand coalition on the federal level. More importantly, it challenges its status as a ‘Volkspartei’ – traditionally a party that provides leadership and forges consensus, and thereby acts as an integrative and stabilising political force.

Three men have officially thrown their hat in the ring to lead the CDU and succeed Angela Merkel as the next chancellor. All come from the West German state of North Rhine-Westphalia and have a clear(er) conservative profile. [...]

Following the electoral setback in Hamburg last Sunday and amidst the renewed concern regarding a rise in right-wing terrorism, a party convention in Berlin on 25 April will decide on the new CDU leader.

Less than 10 weeks later, on 1 July 2020, Germany will take over the rotating EU Council Presidency, the first full trio presidency following Brexit, together with Portugal and Slovenia. It will be the first time that the new CDU leader enters the European political stage – together with Chancellor Merkel and her cabinet ministers.

The end of the transition period (unless it is extended before 1 July 2020) and the negotiations of the future relationship between the EU and the UK will be one of the key items on the agenda. While the European Commission’s Task Force for Relations with the UK headed by Michel Barnier coordinates this process, the Council Presidency will have an important role to play in maintaining a united front of the EU’s national governments across the different council formations.

All three candidates carry Germany’s pragmatic stance towards Brexit forward. Röttgen has called it a ‘catastrophe’ for the EU, but considers good post-Brexit relations key to Europe’s status as a geopolitical power. Merz’ focus has been on the economic impact of Brexit, emphasising the positive aspect of British companies moving to Germany.

After Brexit, Laschet sees a chance to tackle reforms and resume work on “great European visions” in tandem with France. The new CDU leader will be expected to contribute his share to asserting Germany’s leadership role, despite Merkel’s continued strong presence and the fragile coalition with the SPD. This will be particularly difficult for Merz, given the public animosity between Merkel and himself and the fact that he has never held a government position.

Full analysis on UK in a Changing Europe

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