08 September 2013

Wolfgang Münchau: The arithmetic of Germany's election points to instability

On the basis of the polls, even allowing for plenty of statistical wiggle room, it is hard to conceive of a scenario in which Germany could end up with a stable government for the next four years. There is only one such scenario I can think of – but this is at present not considered a high-probability event, given the fiddly arithmetic of German elections and the balance of power in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament where the regional states are represented.

The polls have been favouring a narrow majority for the present centre-right coalition of CDU and FDP. But these parties do not have a majority in the Bundesrat and, given the electoral cycle for state elections, such a majority will be elusive for at least another three years. It is hard to see how the present coalition could govern, especially as I would expect that should the SPD remain in opposition they would be much less supportive of Ms Merkel's eurozone policies than they were in the outgoing legislature. 

The alternative favoured by many is that typically European arrangement: a grand coalition of the two biggest parties that sees almost everyone end up on the government benches. The CDU and the SPD would have a comfortable majority in both houses of parliament.

A grand coalition, however, would only occur if the CDU and FDP fail to get a majority. This in turn implies that the parties of the left have a majority in a five-party parliament. The latter is only a hypothetical majority because the SPD has ruled out a coalition with the Left party – for now. But the Social Democrats could change tack during the parliamentary term. So, Ms Merkel would have a partner who could bail out at any time to form a three-way coalition of the left, or a two-party minority government with the Greens, tacitly supported by the Left party. The latter has been tried at regional level, where it has been a great success for the SPD.

What does this mean for the rest of Europe? In the first scenario, the German government will have even less room for manoeuvre in the eurozone crisis. A grand coalition may look more pro-European – but be careful what you wish for. Gridlock may swiftly return as a permanent threat of new elections hangs over such a coalition. 

The only scenario in which you can see any form of stability is one where both the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the FDP win more than 5 per cent of the votes, the threshold for parliamentary representation. Then the Bundestag would have six parties and neither the CDU and the FDP, nor the SPD, Greens and the Left would have an absolute majority. In that case, the grand coalition would be the only option – and it would be stable. None of the partners would have an incentive to leave. It would be similar to the grand coalition of Ms Merkel’s first term in 2005-09. The problem with that is long-term. The AfD might become a stronger force, pushing the CDU to a more eurosceptic position.

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