14 May 2014

Reuters: Europe's centre-right leads by a sliver before EU election poll

The European People's Party (EPP) will take 212 seats in the May 22-25 vote, according to an analysis of national polls on Wednesday by PollWatch 2014, only three more seats than its centre-left rivals, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D).

There are 751 seats in the parliament, around 70 per cent of which are expected to go to Europe's four mainstream groups - the centre-right, centre-left, Liberals and Greens.

Around a quarter of seats look likely to be won by anti-EU or protest parties on the far-right and far-left, almost double their standing at the last election in 2009. That's largely because of voter frustration with high unemployment and low growth.

Under EU rules introduced in 2009, the party that wins the election is best placed to have its top candidate become the president of the European Commission, one of Brussels' most powerful jobs, with far-reaching influence over legislation.

But while the EPP may just edge out the Socialists in the vote, according to Wednesday's survey, the Socialists are better placed to secure allegiances with other parties on the left, potentially helping them secure a majority in parliament. Since the nominee for Commission president must be approved by parliamentary majority, the Socialists may be able to argue that their candidate has greater legitimacy than the centre-right EPP's.

All three main parties will likely lose seats in the new parliament at the expense of the far-left and far-right, although it remains unclear how coordinated groups on the right and left will be and therefore how influential. "Compared to the outgoing parliament, the new parliament would be more polarised, with more (EU lawmakers) on the radical left and on the right", PollWatch said in a statement.

The group forecasts that if the far right forms an alliance that included France's National Front and Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, it would win enough seats to form a group, meaning access to EU funds and greater influence.

The UK Independence Party (UKIP), which wants Britain to leave the European Union, could lead another anti-EU group with 64 seats, according to PollWatch's analysis, enough to secure the chairmanship of a committee in the parliament.

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© Reuters