In an analysis of the ORB poll for the Telegraph, Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the Conservative Party’s general election victory, says that “the outcome of the referendum will hinge on which side can better turnout their supporters”.

The poll finds that 51 per cent of voters now support Remain – an increase of 4 per cent from last month. Leave’s support has decreased five points to 44 per cent.

Crucially, only 5 per cent of voters said they were undecided, with those who currently say that they do not know how they will vote more likely to back the Remain campaign on June 23.

When certainty to vote is taken into account, the campaigns are virtually tied, with Remain on 49 per cent and Leave on 48 per cent.

This leaves the Remain campaign with a narrow lead of 1 per cent. Last month, when certainty to vote was taken into account, the Leave campaign was forecast to win with 52 per cent of the vote, with remain trailing on 45 per cent.

Sir Lynton writes: “The fact that the Remain campaign are turning out a smaller proportion of the voters that support their cause, while current voting intention remains neck and neck, shows that the Remain campaign holds greater potential for success if it can effectively identify and motivate its supporters.”

The survey finds that turnout will be crucial in determining the final result.

“This week’s poll also reveals an overwhelming majority (87 per cent) of those who will show up on the day as being set in their voting intention,” Sir Lynton writes.

“This leaves only 13 per cent of those who are likely to show up open to persuasion.  The potential voters each campaign has that are supportive, but not currently intending to vote could be far more influential than the ability of either campaign to win over the small proportion of undecided voters.” [...]

Full article on The Telegraph