23 January 2019

Bloomberg: How Brexit could spill over into EU elections

Nationalists from Italy to Hungary are preparing for battle in European Union elections later this year, seeking allies for a united Eurosceptic front against what they call the cosy liberal elite. Now the chaos of Brexit may end up providing them with an army they probably didn’t expect.

With divorce from the EU scheduled for March 29, the U.K. wasn’t supposed to have anything to do with elections to the European Parliament two months later. But with politicians in London at an impasse, it looks more likely that Brexit will be delayed and officials in Brussels reckon disgruntled British voters would elect scores of anti-EU legislators given the chance.

Brexit has dominated Britain for the past two years, though it’s played out to a backdrop of rising nativism and protectionism across Europe that’s left the EU riven with division over the continent’s future.

“We are going to have elections in May, which I would say are delicate, if not dangerous, because we have the rise of populists in Europe,” EU Economy Commissioner Pierre Moscovici told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Italy’s deputy prime minister and nationalist-in-chief, Matteo Salvini, has called the May 23-26 European Parliament ballot “the battle of all battles.” On a visit to Poland this month, he promised a “new European spring.” French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, declared in November that nationalism is a “betrayal” of European values.

Mainstream politicians are now faced with the European Parliament potentially emerging with a big enough antagonistic faction to do some damage, something being championed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon. All 705 seats in the assembly are up for grabs, though the U.K. is supposed to be abandoning its 73. [...]

One of the biggest worries for the EU about allowing the U.K. to take part is that European lawmakers hold a veto over the appointment of the next president of the European Commission. An influential decision-maker, incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker is due to step down later this year.

The last thing the EU needs is Nigel Farage, a leading Brexit campaigner and European Parliament member since 1999, “sitting in judgment” over the appointment of the new commission, a senior diplomat involved in the Brexit talks said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity. [...]

The issue is far deeper than just being about Britain. For the first time, there’s a real possibility anti-EU parties could win enough seats in the European Parliament to disrupt legislative business rather than just rail against it. Nationalist groups oppose much of the EU’s immigration policies and Italy, Poland and Hungary have all had their standoffs with Brussels.

While French President Macron’s vision, backed by Germany, is for closer allegiance on such things as defense and national finances, Italy’s Salvini, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and their allies want more divergence. [...]

Full article on Bloomberg

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