27 May 2019

POLITICO: European election’s winners and losers

Turnout

Voter turnout rose dramatically, making the voting process the biggest winner, after 40 years of declining participation. Champagne corks will be popping in Brussels if national election authorities confirm Monday that the magic 50 percent turnout figure was reached (currently it is projected to hit 50.95 percent).

The main parties

The center-right European People’s Party fell below 25 percent of the vote for the first time since 1989, and the Socialists are hovering at about 20 percent. That's their worst performance since European Parliament direct elections began in 1979.

The bright spots for the big parties came in Italy, where the Democratic Party pushed past the 5Star Movement to take second place and 19 seats. In Spain too, the Socialist party won a clear victory and grew to 18 seats. In Greece, the EPP-aligned New Democracy will win nine seats. By convincingly beating the far-left governing party Syriza, it has prompted Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to call a national election in June.

Salvini's crew

Of the parties that grew, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s alliance is doing best — essentially doubling in size to 70-75 seats, but getting nowhere close to dominance in Parliament. His League colleagues will be lucky to lead the fourth-biggest group in Parliament. The liberal ALDE alliance also gained about 35 seats, thanks mostly to Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche movement, to hit 100-105 seats and take a clear third place.

Green wave

The EU's "Green wave" is both real and geographically limited. Green parties finished second and third in countries including Germany, France, Finland and Luxembourg. Yet Green parties have won no seats in Southern and Eastern Europe. They won only two seats in Central Europe, from Austria, itself a decline on the 2014 Austrian result. Even so, a surge in support for the Greens in the U.K. means the group is likely to beat Salvini's alliance.

Euroskeptic march

Euroskeptic parties had their best showing in Hungary where Viktor Orbán's ruling Fidesz party scored 53 percent, enough for 13 seats. Euroskeptics won 62 percent overall there. Fidesz will now need to decide whether to moderate and stay within the EPP, or to branch out and join a Euroskeptic party group. The outcome may affect the EPP’s bargaining power for top jobs like European Commission president. In Poland, Euroskeptics captured 53 percent of the vote. And across the Parliament, Euroskeptic parties look set to end the night with 235 seats.

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