The future of the UK’s finance industry is to be decided by key policy changes in the coming months.The pandemic and Brexit drove British bankers and politicians back into each other’s arms after a period of acrimony. But will the rekindled relationship last?
It has been a remarkable turnaround for a sector that brought the
world economy down in 2008 and then, in the run-up to the 2016 Brexit
referendum, campaigned hard against EU withdrawal. But the pandemic
drove home to politicians just how vital financial institutions could be
in delivering aid to individuals and business. Banks gave clients hit
by COVID-19 some 5.8 million deferrals from loan repayments during the
height of the pandemic while pumping some £75 billion into the economy
via state-backed loans. The EU's attempt to court the City post Brexit,
meanwhile, has highlighted the City's geopolitical value as a U.K. asset.
Consequently, politicians across parties are now singing the City's
praises once again. In addition to the Conservatives' increasingly
outspoken appreciation, even some Labour figures are praising the
industry's job-creation potential.
But a growing to-do list of policy reforms, rolled out after Brexit
and coming to a head this autumn, may bring fresh tensions as financiers
await the concrete results of regulatory streamlining anticipated for
years. The key question is whether the government has over-promised in a
bid to project a more dynamic image after quitting the EU.
Some industry insiders worry Boris Johnson's administration may fall
short. Team Johnson hasn't yet proved it excels at the kind of forensic
policy work that's needed, said Charlotte Clark, director of regulation
at the Association of British Insurers.
"You build confidence by making decisions and driving them through.
It's not just by rhetoric," she said. "How does London become the
preeminent green finance capital? You need to work with the City to make
that happen."
While the government seems to be heading in the right direction, "the
last few years have taught that things can change quite quickly," added
Clark. "There's some really big decisions for the autumn."
In particular, she pointed to an imminent regulatory overhaul for
insurers (termed Solvency II) and a consultation on a "wholesale markets
review" that closed Friday. It seeks to dial back EU standards from
U.K. law governing great swaths of capital markets, from commodity and
stock trading to bonds, derivatives and data gathering.
Additionally, the U.K. is undertaking an overhaul of capital
requirements for domestic banks and insurance firms. It also wants to
tinker with a shield for deposits from risky market activity, online credit, digital assets and stock markets, among other areas.
"London will be very much defined by these decisions," she warned.
The City and Westminster: A love story
For years, relations between the City and the government were rocky.
The level of mistrust and adversity was unheard of in other areas of the
economy, said one banking lobbyist-turned-politician.
That "friction between government regulators and the industry" was
due to the financial crisis and, later on, widespread opposition to
Brexit among City types, said Anthony Browne, the Conservative MP for
South Cambridgeshire who also sits on the Treasury Committee, which
scrutinizes regulators and financiers.
But now, "there's a bit more in alignment of interest," he said,
pointing to the finance sector’s status as a key source of exports, tax
revenue and well-paid work.
"Financial services has been massively reformed in the last 10 years
and ... they've learned their lessons," added Browne, who previously led
the British Bankers Association, now known as UK Finance, the most
powerful advocacy group for the finance industry in the country....
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