In Q1 2013, GDP decreased by 0.5 per cent with respect to Q4 2012, and by 2.3 per cent in comparison with Q1 2012, the National Statistics Institute Istat said in a preliminary report today.
Italy’s Economic Outlook
In 2013, the Italian GDP is expected to fall by 1.4 per cent in real terms, as a result of a reduction in domestic demand. This is only partially offset by the positive contribution of external demand, as import growth is projected to remain negative and export increases. Total investment are forecast to decline due to tight credit conditions and persistent negative economic sentiment. Private consumption is expected to fall further, reflecting a decline in households' purchasing power and rising unemployment.
In 2014, GDP is expected to return gradually to growth (+0.7 per cent). Private consumption would contribute positively to output growth. Investment are projected to rebound, supported by buoyant export. As a result, the contribution of domestic demand to output growth is estimated to be positive.
This outlook in based on the assumption of mild positive effects on 2014 private investment growth of recent measures approved by Parliament to accelerate budget arrears repayments to the private sector.
Downside risks to these forecasts reflect weaker external demand. Upside risks are related to higher investment and consumption effects from reduced liquidity constraints in the private sector.
Press release
Link to preliminary report
© Istat - Istituto nazionale di statistica
Key
Hover over the blue highlighted
text to view the acronym meaning
Hover
over these icons for more information
Comments:
No Comments for this Article