26 June 2013

German election update: CDU/CSU/FDP coalition increasingly likely to continue

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that the the SPD candidate for chancellor, Peer Steinbrück, called the CDU's electoral programme a "fraud with crazy promises" which were not backed by any financing proposals. Both he and Sigmar Gabriel, leader of the Social Democrats, pointed out that serious doubts about this government programme existed even within the ranks of the CDU itself. Steinbrück also criticised the programme as undemocratic and as having been "decreed from the top down". In contrast to the SPD programme, which had been developed with input by the party's base, the CDU programme had seen no such consultation, writes the Handelsblatt. 

Mr Gabriel accused Ms Merkel of taking the German citizens for fools and blinding them with unaffordable promises. Steinbrück said the SPD's plans were well thought through and financed - not least by a higher top tax rate. CSU leader Horst Seehofer had said, however, that Germany was currently getting the highest tax revenues of all time and that during enormous competitive pressures after the financial and economic crisis any "tax increases were irresponsible".

One explanation for the success of the CDU in opinion polls has been put down to the fact that CDU and CSU have partially aligned their social policies with those of the SPD.  Furthermore, Chancellor Angela Merkel is regarded as the main asset in the party's federal election campaign, with an unmatched lead in the recent polls. As Reuters Deutschland reports: Even though losing one percentage point compared to the previous week, 57 per cent of the population still replied in her favour when asked who they would prefer to have as next chancellor. Only 20 per cent wished Peer Steinbrück to fulfil the role (despite his having caught up by two percentage points after the emotional party convention last week). And only a mere 8 per cent of the population believe the Social Democrats to be the best party to deal with Germany's problems. However, 34 per cent would not put it past the CDU.

Talking to n-tv, Manfred Güllner, head of the forsa Institute for Social Research and Statistical Analysis, said that in all likelihood Angela Merkel would remain German chancellor. The negative image of Peer Steinbrück was nigh on  impossible to turn around in time for elections. The only really open question remained what sort of coalition would be formed, and that question might well still be open even on the evening of the election itself. 

According to the latest forsa survey published on Wednesday, the CDU could obtain 41 per cent of the votes and the Liberals around 5 per cent, just about scraping the 5 per cent hurdle to get into the German Bundestag. In the current context of a 5-party parliament, a 46 per cent coalition would mean a viable majority and a possible continuation of the current government. 

The SPD, however, has plunged to new depths in the polls. For the second week in a row now, the Social Democrats would only have been able to secure around 22 per cent of the votes, says the survey, which would be an even worse result than their record low in the general elections of 2009. The Greens remain at 15 per cent and the Left party at 8 per cent. No other party would make it into the Bundestag according to the poll, with the Pirate Party and the anti-euro party "Alternative für Deutschland" both at a stable 2 per cent.

The latest forsa survey also contained a question on coalition preferences for the new government. Strikingly, only about 15 per cent wanted to keep the CDU/FDP coalition, whereas 20 per cent would prefer a SPD/Greens coalition government. Most favoured, with 31 per cent approval amongst voters, would be a grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD.