24 July 2013

German elections - The campaigns intensify, slowly

The latest polls seem to suggest that a continuation of the present government is increasingly likely. DBResearch points out that for more than eight months, the gap between the combined SPD-Green votes and the CDU/CSU-FDP votes has widened steadily. All major polls on the upcoming elections on September 22 see the CDU/CSU at 40 per cent or more, the SPD at around 25 per cent, the Greens at 12-14 per cent, and most expect the FDP to achieve at least 5 per cent of the votes and thus to remain in parliament. The eurosceptic party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) scores around 2-3 per cent and will most probably not enter parliament. Given the high number of "other parties" that will garner votes without gaining representation in parliament, roughly 46 per cent of the votes could suffice for a majority.

While chances have increased that the new government will be the old one – implying a very broad continuity in terms of policy and personnel terms – the remaining uncertainties attached to polls leave a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD a valid option. To a certain extent, such a coalition with a broad majority in parliament might find it easier to cope with the upcoming issues on the European agenda that will clearly dominate domestic policy.

One of the main topics in current debate is the NSA’s prism programme and the lack of clarity whose and which communication, even on government level, has been monitored by the Americans. As reported by the Spiegel, this topic has been taken up by Peer Steinbrück to spark off the final phase of the SPD’s election campaign. He reminded chancellor Merkel of the content of her oath of office in which she had sworn to prevent damage to the German people. In dealing with this affair, Steinbrück accused Merkel of "helplessness, inactivity and lack of assertiveness". For weeks the SPD, Greens and Left Party have been trying to corner the federal government with accusations of mismanagement in this matter. The affair, despite being "a concern" and "unsatisfactorily managed" for a majority of the population, has had surprisingly little influence on the polls, however.

As the Welt reported, the only "big winner" of the affair has been the Pirate party, jumping from 2 per cent to 4 per cent. Merkel's personal reputation does not appear to have been damaged at all, perhaps surprisingly so. In a direct election of the government, 57 per cent of Germans would, as in previous weeks, opt for Angela Merkel - still only 21 per cent (plus 1) would opt for SPD challenger, Peer Steinbrück.

Reuters reports on another of Steinbrück’s attacks on Merkel’s crisis-handling skills. Steinbrück accused Merkel of deceit over eurozone bailouts and of covering up the likelihood that German taxpayers will indeed have to fund them. Steinbrück was quoted as saying a fresh write-down on Greek debt would mean losses for public creditors, in other words taxpayers. "As such, the illusion about not being a union of joint liability would burst like a bubble - possibly even before the federal elections", Steinbrück told Wirtschaftswoche, adding that it could "not be excluded in any way" that other countries might need further financial help after the election.

Meanwhile, FDP leader Philipp Rösler is quoted in the newspaper die Zeit as stating clearly that a "traffic light" coalition of SPD, Greens and Liberals was not an option for his party. He further described SPD candidate Steinbrück as appearing to cling frantically to any straw in his campaign. In the interview, he referred to Steinbrück's accusation of Merkel disrespecting her oath of office over the NSA affair as "excessive" and "desperate campaign rhetoric". The chancellor and the entire government were aware of their responsibilities and Steinbrück’s statements made himself look "dubious and stagey". Anyone who wanted to become chancellor should know that this topic was not advisable for campaigning, said Rösler, stating that Steinbrück was apparently not a suitable candidate.

However, as the Welt also reported, within the coalition, disputes have erupted over the so-called solidarity surcharge which was brought in to support the former East Germany. While the FDP wants to abolish the special levy, Angela Merkel insists that it is still indispensable for financing the infrastructure investments needed in the coming years.

Another interesting study has been published by DBResearch on the possible influence of the eurosceptic wings of the CDU/CSU and FDP after the elections.

The Bundestag will again need to address controversial issues in the context of euro crisis management during the next legislative period, and eurosceptic MPs in the FDP and the CDU/CSU could achieve greater leverage in upcoming decisions. The share of "no" votes and abstentions in decisions on bailout policy increased until the end of 2012 to the present level of around 8 per cent, making chancellor Merkel dependant on the support by the SPD and the Greens for her bailout programmes. This dependency might well increase, argues this study.