EU leaders want to minimise disruption and concentrate on other pressing issues, writes Wolfgang Münchau.
There is still a small window for an October 31 Brexit, but it is closing. The two more likely scenarios both involve an extension. If the commons approves the deal, the EU would agree to a short technical extension, of a few weeks, to secure ratification of the agreement by the European parliament.
If the UK parliament votes no, the European Council will require the UK to point to a political way forward as a condition for granting an extension.
I do not see a majority for a second referendum. This leaves an election. From the EU’s point of view, this is a fairly straightforward decision, unlikely to prove controversial. Since Mr Johnson also wants to avoid a no-deal Brexit — despite what he says publicly — their interests are more aligned than it appears.
What is the reason behind the shift in Brussels? [...] Continental European chancelleries see Mr Johnson as the big beast of British politics right now. They will need him as a political ally beyond Brexit.
What has also shifted is their perception of relative risk. The EU would, I think, still prefer Brexit to be reversed. But the past two months have shown that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is much higher than previously thought. It is one thing for EU officials to say to a journalist that they expect it, quite another to believe it and to act on it. Germany may already be in a recession due to a drop in Chinese imports of German manufacturing goods. Brexit uncertainty is also a factor. A no-deal Brexit would turn the industrial recession into something much worse. Chancellor Angela Merkel and other EU leaders are willing to accept a less-than-perfect withdrawal agreement to insure against such a calamity. They would rather take the safe option of a compromise than a three-way bet that gives them, say, a 20 per cent probability of both a Brexit reversal and a no-deal Brexit. [...]
There are other, more subtle, reasons why the EU might want to cut its losses. Brexit has distracted the bloc from other important, unresolved issues. Some EU leaders had hoped to present the accession of North Macedonia and Albania as antidote to Brexit. One country leaves, two join. France vetoed this, arguing the EU needs to reform itself before the next round of enlargement. [...]
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Related article on The New York Times: European Union’s Message to U.K.: Just Leave Already
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