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21 July 2016

Brexit 'Weekly'


Brexit, Banking Union, ECFIN, IMF, CMU, The City, EBA, supervisory practices, insolvency laws, Italy’s banking problem, Bank of England, EU budget and more.

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Graham's Articles, Comments & Speeches
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  Articles from 14 July 2016 - 21 July 2016

  Grahams Articles, Comments & Speeches
 
 
Impact of Brexit on Banking Union
Could Brexit scupper the drive for `more Europe’ and thus de-rail the completion of banking union – a financial project to de-link governments from their banks?  View Article
Referendum on Brexit Terms: Worst-case WTO rules are the only way to avoid it
Graham Bishop sets out scenarios why the European Union Act 2011 will probably require a referendum on the UK’s exit trade deal with the EU, against a background highly influenced by the British current account deficit.  View Article
 
  Political
 
 
ECFIN: The Economic Outlook after the UK Referendum: A first assessment for the Euro Area and the EU
The economic outlook after the UK referendum: Commission publishes a first assessment for the euro area and the EU.  View Article
IMF cuts global growth forecasts on Brexit, warns of risks to outlook
Brexit causes ‘substantial’ increase in economic, political, institutional uncertainty, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. Global forecast for 2017 cut by 0.1 percentage point, to 3.4 percent.  View Article
Bruegel: Single market access from outside the EU: three key prerequisites
Net financial contribution to the EU, net inflow of EU immigrants and adoption of EU law are three indicators which may be indicative about the conditions which the UK would have to fulfil if it wishes to get similar access to the single market.  View Article
Deutsche Bundesbank's Dombret: What does Brexit mean for European banks?
Whatever the legal outcome of Brexit negotiations may be - it better be arranged swiftly. For banks, as for the economy as a whole, any uncertainty should be kept to the very minimum, said Andreas Dombret.  View Article
EY Item Club: Brexit fallout to hit UK economic growth
The UK economy may face "severe loss of momentum" after the vote to leave the EU, according to the EY Item Club.  View Article
The Guardian: Brexit impact is going to be horrible, says leading City fund manager
Old Mutual Global Investors (OMGI) chief executive Richard Buxton predicts that UK economy will judder to a halt, but adds that recession may not be as bad as some shares suggest.  View Article
IN Facts: UK likely to miss out on giant new EU capital market
During the referendum, the Remain camp was virtually silent on how much Britain had to gain from staying in the EU. One important opportunity was to lead what is known as capital markets union – a plan to create a vast new capital market for Europe.  View Article
Policy Network: The impact of Brexit on the City and the British economic model
In this brief the authors consider the impact of Brexit on the City, focusing on two key aspects of the debate: the tensions between the City and democratic politics, and the challenges for the future of the City posed by the vote on 23 June for Britain to leave the European Union.  View Article
Financial Times: City of London sees Brexit differently to new minister
Financial services industry’s big priority is easy access into the EU single market.  View Article
Financial Times: How to make Brexit manageable
The master plan was as clear on the general direction as it was naive about the technical details, writes Wolfgang Münchau.  View Article
IPE: UK pensions regulator seeks to calm trustees over Brexit volatility
The Pensions Regulator in the UK is warning schemes to stay focused on the longer term and avoid knee-jerk reactions as market volatility following the country’s EU referendum sparks fears about funding plans and investments.  View Article
Paul Goldschmidt: The European Union - a glimmer of hope!
The uncertainty resulting from the British vote and the fears it fosters, offer an opportunity to polarise public opinion on the future of the Union.  View Article
European Parliament: Slovak Presidency priorities discussed in committee
The priorities of the Slovak Presidency of the EU Council of Ministers are being outlined to parliamentary committees by Slovak ministers at a series of meetings.  View Article
 
  Financial
 
 
EBA notes progress in convergence of supervisory practices across the EU
The Report, which is addressed to the EU Parliament and the Council, reviews consistency in the application of the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) and supervisory practices in the assessment of recovery plans.   View Article
CEPS: Harmonising insolvency laws in the Euro Area: rationale, stock-taking and challenges. What role for the Eurogroup?
To promote a more entrepreneurial spirit, a pan-European framework for early restructuring of businesses could offer a true second chance for entrepreneurs.   View Article
Bruegel: Italy’s banking problem is serious but can be fixed
The policy and political challenges associated with Italian banks are complex but far from intractable, and need not become a systemic risk for the euro area, argues Nicolas Véron.  View Article
 
  Economic
 
 
Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  View Article
Bank of England: Brexit and Monetary Policy - speech by Martin Weale
The BoE's Weale notes that there is still a high level of uncertainty around the implications of leaving the EU. At the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, he will balance his views on any overshoot of inflation beyond its target in two to three years’ time against possible weakness in GDP.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: Risk managers need to sell value of captives
Europe's risk managers need to energetically sell the benefits and added value of captives or risk facing problems brought by new international tax rules, according to Ferma.  View Article
 
  Budgetary
 
 
EU budget for 2017: Council agrees its position
The Council's Permanent Representatives Committee agreed its position on the 2017 EU draft budget for the upcoming negotiations with the European Parliament.   View Article
 

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