15 November 2017

Financial Times: Loss of skilled EU workers threatens UK growth, says PwC

A sharp decline in EU migration after Brexit could dent Britain’s gross domestic product by 1.1 per cent, or £22bn, in 2030, according to an analysis published by PwC, the consultancy.

[...]The report, part of PwC’s latest Economic Outlook, said that while a severe slowdown in migration would have a relatively muted effect on Britain’s economy as a whole — GDP per capita under its scenario would fall by just 0.2 per cent by 2030 — certain sectors and parts of the country, including London, would be harder hit.

John Hawksworth, PwC’s chief economist, said there could be “potential benefits” from lower EU migration through reduced pressure on transport systems, housing and public services, such as health and education.

But he added: “These could be more than offset by the loss of skilled EU workers in these sectors if the post-Brexit policy regime is not calibrated correctly.”

PwC considered what would happen if net migration from the EU halved from 2023, compared with the Office for National Statistics’ current central projection of long-term net migration, which was published last month. Such a fall would cut the long-term average of EU net migration to about 117,000 a year, against a central projection of between 165,000 and 185,000, according to PwC. [...]

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