25 October 2018

The Guardian: Millennials may lose up to £108k over 30 years with no-deal Brexit

Young people will be financial losers under all Brexit outcomes facing losses of up to £108,000 over their lifetime under the worst-case no-deal scenario, according to a report which also included a warning from former prime minister John Major about the deep implications for millennials.

The report, commissioned by the campaign group Our Future, Our Choice, projected the loss of earnings between now and 2050 – accounting for a 30-year career for most young people.

It used models by Oxford University economist Tommy Peto, partly based on the Brexit briefing papers, which set out its impact over the next 15 years, which showed that the Norway model would have the least adverse financial impact on young people.

Major, in a foreword to the report, said: “The British public were offered pipe dreams, not realities. Under every scenario that has been independently modelled, even by our own British government, the UK will be poorer and weaker, and the poorest regions and the least well-off will suffer the most.”

He said young people who were not eligible to vote in the referendum should be given a say in their future with a new vote.

“Since June 2016 there are nearly 2 million more young people eligible to vote. It is only right they have a say in their nation’s future,” said Major.

The report predicted that under a no-deal Brexit, where Britain defaults to World Trade Organization rules, the average young person starting work would earn between £44,000 and £108,000 less over their 30-year career.

A Canada-style free trade agreement would cost young people between £30,000 and £72,000 while a Norway-style Brexit, in which the UK would remain in the European Economic Area, would mean a loss of earnings of between £7,000 and £32,000 over a working lifetime. [...]

Full article on The Guardian

Our Future, Our Choice report

© The Guardian