UBS Wealth Management said “the progress made on Brexit negotiations will likely have lessened uncertainty” for business investment and hiring, as “the UK looks set to enter a transition agreement” in which “little should change operationally for most firms”.

By moving away from a ‘no deal’ scenario, economist Dean Turner believes the risks to economic growth are diminishing, improving the outlook for the UK.“Unquestionably, uncertainty about a final agreement will linger, so we consider it too early for a rebound of business investment,” he said. “Still, the threat of a sharp near-term slowdown should diminish.” [...]

The US investment bank has slashed its estimated probability of Brexit negotiations failing to reach a conclusion, cutting its probability from 25pc to 15pc as the UK and Brussels move towards trade talks.

This is because Theresa May looks increasingly likely to stay as Prime Minister until at least Brexit day itself next year, and because eurosceptic MPs seem unlikely to block the transition period, JP Morgan analyst Malcolm Barr said.

“Our expectation is that, while the framework for the future relationship will be bespoke and suggest some services coverage, it will still suggest a substantial loss of access relative to the status quo,” he said.

In terms of goods trade, he predicts UK institutions will certify that goods meet EU standards before they are exported, while the deal will also give the UK regulatory autonomy and the freedom to sign new trade deals outside the EU. [...]

Full article on The Telegraph