27 February 2019

Bertelsmann Stiftung: We’ll be fine. How people in the EU27 view Brexit

Whereas in the UK, the tension seems to intensify with every twist and turn the British take on their way out of the European Union, Europeans on the continent seem to be surprisingly detached. They support their country’s membership in the EU in ever greater numbers.

In December 2018, Bertelsmann Stiftung researchers have again polled people in the 27 remaining member states to get a sense of how they view Brexit and how this differs across those who feel close to particular political parties.

Specially, they asked to two questions, one relating to the possible consequences of Brexit for countries within the EU:

1. The British decided to leave the EU in 2019, what do you think best describes the consequences the EU will face, if any? EU countries will be better off, EU countries will be worse off, or there will not be a significant change. And one question relating to the possible consequences of Brexit for the United Kingdom:

2. The British decided to leave the EU in 2019, what do you think best describes the consequences the United Kingdom will face, if any? The UK will be better off, the UK will be worse off, or there will not be a significant change.
   
   Here authors detail the three main findings of their analysis of this data:

• Like in June 2016, the citizens in the remaining 27 member states think that the EU countries will not be much affected by Brexit.  A majority, 61 per cent, thinks that there will not be a significant change in EU countries because of Brexit. 27 per cent think that EU countries will be worse off, while only 12 per cent EU countries will be better off because of Brexit. The Dutch and Poles are on average most pessimistic about the consequences of Brexit for EU countries. 34 and 32 per cent of Dutch and Polish respondents respectively think that EU countries will be worse off, and only 50 and 54 per cent respectively think that the situation will remain the same.

• Interestingly, citizens in the EU27 are much more split when it comes to how they view the consequences of Brexit for the UK. 31 per cent of respondents in the EU-27 think that there will not be a significant change for the UK, while 44 per cent that the UK will be worse off because of Brexit, and 25 per cent think the UK will be better off. The German and Spanish respondents are most pessimistic about the consequences of Brexit for the UK. 58 and 50 per cent of German and Spanish respondents respectively think that the UK will be worse off because of Brexit, while only 13 and 19 per cent respectively think that the UK will be better off.

• Finally, their findings show that there is quite some variation across party supporters, especially when it comes to the perceived consequences of Brexit for the UK. Those who feel close to far-right or populist-right parties like the Rassemblement National (former Front National) in France or the Lega in Italy think that the UK will be better off because of Brexit. 59 per cent of those who feel close to Le Pen’s Rassemblement National or 52 per cent of those who feel close to Salvini’s Lega think that the UK will be better off because of Brexit, while only 10 and 13 per cent respectively think that the UK would be worse off. 

Full results

© Bertelsmann Stiftung