A Britain Elects poll favours the Leave camp of the voting spectrum: Conservatives poll at 35,1% and the Brexit party at 11,3%. A YouGov poll puts Boris Johnson in the lead with 37%.
Labour stands second with 25.4% in the Britain Elects poll and 22% at the YouGov poll. The Liberals, who want to revoke Article 50 poll fare between 18,1% and 19%. In the Britain Elects poll, the Green Party also stands to gain a 4% share of the vote. The political fragmentation of the Remain camp is clearly more fractured.
However, in the British first-past-the-post system the geographic spread of the vote matters as much as the percentage. Johnson’s electoral bet is founded on the assumption the Conservatives can win seats from Labour in the North, campaigning against Labour and the Brexit party at the same time.
Furthermore, Johnson is likely to lose seats in the largely Remain Scotland, particularly since the resignation of Ruth Davidson from the leadership of the Scottish Conservatives, largely because she did not look eye-to-eye with the prime minister over Brexit policy. Boris Johnson needs to defend 13 seats there while hoping to advance elsewhere.
That is a tall order. Johnson heads to the elections having readmitted 10 out of 21 Conservative MPs that were expelled from the party when they refused to support the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. This means he will have a more controlled message over Brexit. But he will be continually reminded that he did not deliver Brexit on October 31. [...]
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