The Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature increase to “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels is likely to be achieved, according to the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR), a climate transition forecasting consortium focussed on serving institutional investors.
The consortium, whose approach is conceptually distinct from that of scenarios produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sees temperatures peaking at 1.7°-1.8°C by the 2040s, with net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2060 and net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2080.
Efforts will continue towards the higher ambition goal of 1.5°C in light of the effects of breaching this lower threshold, in the 2030s, and the 1.5°C goal could be reached by the 2120s through carbon removals, according to the consortium, which was commissioned by the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) in 2018.
A few days after the IPR published its new forecast, the IEA released an update of its landmark net zero roadmap of 2021, saying that the path to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C had narrowed but was still open due to record growth of key clean energy technologies.
In contrast to the IPR, the IEA produces scenarios working backwards from a hypothetical outcome and doesn’t model land. The stance on keeping warming to 1.5°C is a major difference between the two climate analyses, but Jakob Thomä, project director of the IPR, said that a common point is the acknowledgement of “climate policy accelerating like crazy”....
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