13 September 2023

Robert Schuman Fondation's Joannin: New political equations in Europe one year before the European elections

The European elections of spring 2024 (6-9 June) represent a political opportunity to assert and strengthen Europe's place and weight on the international scene. This election will be the starting point for an almost complete renewal of the European institutions...

Europe is facing a situation that it never thought it would have to face again: there is now a war on its borders, whereas since 1950 the European project has been built on peace ("Never again"), and as a result the return of power struggles which is forcing Europe to adapt its rules so that it can remain relevant in the global competition. In these circumstances, the European elections of spring 2024 (6-9 June) represent a political opportunity to assert and strengthen Europe's place and weight on the international scene. This election will be the starting point for an almost complete renewal of the European institutions with the appointment of the Commission and the designation of a new President of the European Council. Therefore, a crucial political year lies ahead[1]. What does the political landscape in Europe look like one year before this major electoral event?

Maligned or unloved political parties

Recent elections in Europe have confirmed a trend that has been underway for several years: the disaffection with traditional political parties, with a consequent increase in abstention. Political life no longer attracts either activists or candidates. The numerous private, professional, regulatory, ethical and financial constraints imposed on candidates and elected officials are deterring the most motivated from engaging in politics. Furthermore, and perhaps as a consequence, voters are less and less inclined to go and vote; some because they find the political offer disappointing or because it does not correspond or no longer corresponds to their expectations, others because they would like to see the introduction of certain techniques (electronic or postal voting to avoid having to go to the polls) or certain forms of expression (blank vote). In general, voters are no longer attached to a party and, because of the disappearance of divisive ideologies, their votes fluctuate according to their mood and circumstances. Thus, it appears that voters can choose a candidate regardless of his or her political label, if one is openly displayed. Throughout Europe, we are witnessing the gradual decline of the governing parties, which have been in power for several decades, whether they lie to the right or left of the political spectrum. On the left, this is notably the case of the Socialist Party (PS) in France, which went from winning 250 seats in the 1997 parliamentary elections to 138 in 2002 and only 31 in 2022; the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Germany, which decreased from a score of 38.52% in the 2002 federal elections to 25.7% in 2021; the Democratic Party (PD) in Italy, which went from 33.2% in the 2008 parliamentary elections to 19.07% in 2022, and PASOK in Greece, whose score fell from 43.79% in 2000 to 11.46% in 2023. In fact, the left now governs in only five countries (Denmark, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Malta). On the right, the same situation is true for Les Républicains (LR) in France, which collapsed from holding 309 seats in 2002 (UMP at the time) to only 61 in 2022; for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU), from 38.51% in 2002 to 18.9% in 2022; for the People's Party (PP) in Spain, from 44.52% in 2000 to 20.31% in 2019; for the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in Portugal, from 40.21% in 2002 to 28.41% in 2022; and above all for Forza Italia in Italy, from 29.48% in 2001 to 8.13% in 2022 The moderate right has, to date, nine heads of government (Cyprus, Romania, Greece, Croatia, Sweden, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Austria). Finland could join them following the general elections on 2 April won by the national coalition party (Kokoomus), bringing the total to 10. In fact, twelve Member States, almost half, are no longer governed by the left or the right. Four are led by Liberals (Estonia, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands), three are led by Conservatives (Italy, Poland, Czech Republic), two are independent (France, Slovenia) even though their MEPs sit in the Renew group, and one is in conflict with all the current European parties (Hungary) and its MEPs sit among the non-attached members. Finally, two countries (Bulgaria, Slovakia) are in the process of appointing a new government.

Often inconclusive experiments

The corollary is the rise of more radical parties, often described as populist, which tend to be on the right of the political spectrum, even if these experiments often prove inconclusive. Voters, when they go to the polls, are increasingly inclined to express their dismay at the profound changes taking place. Having lost their understanding of the purpose of political parties, which are accused of doing more or less the same thing in the face of external constraints imposed on each country by, among other things, the interdependence of global economies and the dependence of decision-makers, they either desert the polling booth or convince themselves that certain parties would act differently because they have not yet held office. In France, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) are scoring higher and higher with each election. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is making inroads, particularly in the eastern Länder. The far-right party, Vox, came third in the parliamentary elections in Spain in November 2019, and might join forces with the People's Party (PP). The Chega party in Portugal came third in the general elections in January 2022. A number of northern European countries are in a similar situation: the Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands came third in the general elections of March 2021, and the Forum for Democracy (FvD) quadrupled its number of seats; the True Finns (PS) came second in the general elections of April 2023 and might again enter government. The Swedish Democrats (SD) tailed the Social Democratic Party (SAP) in the legislative elections in September 2022, but did succeed in taking the lead over the moderate right party (Moderaterna). They did not enter the government led by Moderate leader, Ulf Kristersson, but are wielding strong influence over government policy. These good results do not always translate into victories. Certainly, Italy witnessed the accession to government in 2018 of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Northern League (Lega) and, in October 2022, of Fratelli d'Italia (FDI) with The League, which is no longer as powerful as in 2018, together with Forza Italia (FI). This party, that lies centre-right, had already governed with a populist party, the National Alliance (AN) in 1994, but back then it was the main party in the coalition, whereas it is now only the third and smallest party in the new coalition. The far-right Party for Freedom (FPÖ) participated in the Austrian government in 2017, but left in 2019 following a high-profile scandal that led to fresh elections. The same party first took part in government in 2000, which led to strong dissent within the party, which also resulted in snap elections and, above all, was condemned by other EU Member States. On the other side of the political spectrum, the radical left-wing party (SYRIZA) won the general elections in Greece in 2015 with 36.3% due to the crisis affecting the country at the time. But because of the tough measures it had to take despite its promises, it was not re-elected in 2019 and during the general elections on 21 May 2023 it took second place, trailing the party of outgoing Prime Minister, New Democracy (40.79%) by more than twenty points (20.07%°). Looking objectively at these recent examples, we can conclude that the government practices of these parties, whether populist or extremist, were not successful. This has resulted in their early departure from government before the end of their mandate: in Italy, where Mario Draghi was called in as a saviour to head a government of national unity in 2021, two years before the end of the mandate of the M5S-Lega government; in Austria, in May 2019, the FPÖ was forced to leave the government coalition it had entered in December 2017; in Finland, the True Finns joined the government in 2015 but split in two in 2017, dividing those who wanted to leave the government and those who intended to participate. They might return following the legislative elections on 2 April 2023 when they garnered 20.05%, just behind Kokoomus (20.82%)....

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