13 September 2023

EPC: From rhetoric to action on enlargement: A three-pronged way forward

It might be the rentrée, but the debate about EU enlargement has not taken a break, nor is it showing signs of slowing down. Since Russia’s war in Ukraine, the dossier has seen a meteoric rise on the EU’s agenda and has become the talk of the town – in Brussels and the member states’ capitals.

The perception that enlargement has become a geopolitical imperative that serves the EU’s fundamental security interests in the new era partially explains the transformation of the policy into a political priority. At the same time, the growing attention to enlargement is due to a host of manifest, polarising and uncomfortable issues – some long-standing (e.g. the EU’s absorption capacity), some more recent (e.g. the ‘Ukraine question’) – that could stymie the prospect of bringing ten more members into the EU’s fold.

The stakes are high: if the EU does not square the challenge with the need to deliver enlargement, it cannot influence the emergence of a new security architecture. The EU and its member states will keep talking and meeting regularly about enlargement in the coming months. The key question is what they will do to resolve the enlargement dilemma. Only concrete action can lend credibility to the ongoing conversation, and it should follow three strategic lines: (1) consensus building, (2) forethought planning, and (3) resource allocation for enlargement.

Present a common front

EU institutions and the member states should be on the same page in their communication and efforts on enlargement. In the future, it's best to avoid the lack of coordination and agreement that transpired within the EU around the 2030 enlargement target date that European Council President Charles Michel announced in August. The issue is not whether President Michel’s timeline is feasible and desirable – the nub of much of the criticism expressed by other European institutions and member states; to be sure, all sides bring forward some good arguments. Nor is it probing if the relevant stakeholders should have different views – they do and will continue to do so.

The point is that a divided house cannot stand in pursuit of such a formidable goal as enlargement is at present. Public spats highlight the chasm between lofty political rhetoric and the EU’s capacity to advance the enlargement process to completion. European leaders will arguably never see eye to eye on every aspect of this policy. But they should not allow internal struggles to play out in public and cast doubt on whether the EU has or can deliver an unshakable vision of a joint future with the enlargement countries. Before the end of the current term, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with President Michel and the European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, should convene an inter-institutional conference on EU enlargement and seek to rally everyone behind a common front.

Forethink all steps of the way

With or without agreement on a specific deadline, the EU should formulate a comprehensive plan that clearly outlines the tasks, milestones, and priorities that will see enlargement through. Aspiring countries still have their ‘homework’ to do. But it is high time that the EU started cracking on with its preparations.

For many, an EU of 30+ members raise legitimate questions of governability. The EU’s expansion to a dozen more countries will inevitably affect the balance of power, voting rights, and internal decision-making. The challenge is not only one of numbers – e.g. how to ensure that countries do not block policies and how to decide on who gets/or does not get a Commissioner. It is also a problem of scale, considering that Ukraine’s population is over 43 million (compared to 15 million for all Balkan countries). EU policies, like the Common Agricultural Policy, or structural/regional policies and their financing will need revision. Discussions focus at present on extending Qualified Majority Voting only in foreign and security policy or phasing-in voting rights for the enlargement countries to accelerate integration and mitigate their impact on EU decision-making...

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