24 November 2023

Chatham House's van Rij: What a far-right surge in the Netherlands means for Europe

A solid bloc of Eurosceptic parties in power is cause for concern. The Netherlands is yet another European state to have swung to the right after the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) won the largest number of seats in the national elections.

After Victor Orban’s long-standing reign in Hungary, far-right Giorgia Meloni took the lead in Italy, and Robert Fico’s pro-Putin party won Slovakia’s election, there is now a solid bloc of Eurosceptic leaning parties in power in Europe.

While each party has their agenda and they certainly do not hold monolithic views, the resurgence of the democratically-elected far-right in Europe is reason for concern.

Contentious issue of migration

To understand what drove Dutch voters to the Freedom Party, one only has to look at what brought the last Rutte-led government down. After 13 years, Mark Rutte resigned as prime minister and VVD party leader and subsequently brought the government down over discussions on how to reduce migration.

Freedom Party leader Geert Wilders has consistently had the same message on migration since leaving the VVD in 2006 to found his party. This has gone hand-in-hand with his inflammatory anti-Islam rhetoric and a strong anti-EU sentiment having advocated for a so-called ‘Nexit’ since 2016.

Until this election campaign, the other main parties had vowed not to work with the Freedom Party because of Wilder’s outspoken views. In a parliament which requires 76 seats to obtain a majority and therefore cross-party coalitions to achieve this, the VVD made a critical error during this election campaign. It changed position and considered working with the Freedom Party. For voters, this signalled the Freedom Party’s newfound legitimacy in the political landscape and any votes for the Freedom Party were no longer lost.

Possibilities for coalition

As the largest party, the Freedom Party now has the right to begin exploring options to form a government. The VVD has changed its position and said it will not govern as part of a coalition, but may still prop up a right-wing cabinet on a case-by-case basis. This makes a majority coalition government unlikely...

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