15 July 2022

EPC: Europe’s moment of truth: United by adversity?

Inaction is not an option for the Union. It must demonstrate both unity and ambition along a concrete reform path, specifically across 10 strategic areas. The EU27 must decide whether the integration project can once again become a success story – this time in reaction to the watershed moment ..

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a major transgression against, and tragedy for, a sovereign country and its people wanting to determine their own future. There is no justification for this war of aggression and the war crimes that Russian troops have already carried out – all driven by revisionist ideology and the neo-imperial ambitions of President Putin and his supporters.

A watershed moment in European history

The war is aimed at not only Ukraine but all liberal democracies, directly challenging our interests and values and putting into question the European and international order. Russia’s invasion is a watershed for Europe – or, as Chancellor Scholz dubbed it, a Zeitenwende –, signalling the dawn of a new era. All our societies are or will be, sooner rather than later, affected profoundly by this moment, and inaction is not an option. EU and national policies will have to change radically, as the status quo ante no longer exists and will not return, no matter how hard some might wish this to be the case. The Union must move forward, and to do so, the EU27 will have to demonstrate both unity and ambition along a concrete reform path. If the EU and its member states do not act now, we will live in a world determined by others, with stifling constraints on our ability to shape our future and defend our values and interests for generations to come.

In response to the 24 February attack, the EU27 have acted more decisively, united and faster than in any other crisis since 2007. Contrary to Putin’s original objectives, the transatlantic alliance has been reinvigorated, and the US is again fully engaged in Europe (at least, for the time being). Out of fear that this major crisis could spiral further out of control, the EU and its member states have understood that there is no alternative but to counter the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Not doing so would invite the Kremlin to continue down the path Putin embarked on 15 years ago, and also send the wrong signals in view of future geopolitical or geo-economic crises. While some in the EU (and beyond) have been naive about Putin’s intentions, the age of innocence clearly ended when Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border.

No time for self-congratulation

The EU and NATO have been, and are, rightly trying to avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia to prevent a further escalation of the conflict, which could lead to the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. But the EU27 have, in conjunction with the US and other like-minded partners, shown real resolve and determination, breaking many taboos. The list of measures is already long: far-reaching economic sanctions; the withdrawal of companies from Russia; welcoming millions of Ukrainian refugees; humanitarian and unprecedented military support to Kyiv; strengthening the transatlantic alliance, reaffirming the US’ strong commitment to NATO, and Finland and Sweden joining the Atlantic Alliance; Denmark ditching its EU defence opt-out; granting Ukraine and Moldova EU candidate status; and policy changes across a range of fields, including proposals to increase military spending and decrease energy dependence on Russia.

Although the EU and its member states reacted more decisively than many expected, this is no time for self-congratulation. The EU27 must do more. EU institutions and member states will have to put other taboos to rest, doing what would have been unthinkable only a few months ago.

In the first months of the war, unity in the EU held, despite some differences on particular policy issues, such as the extent and pace of energy sanctions. But there are worrying signs that the remarkable unity of purpose will not hold indefinitely. In recent statements and political interactions among EU leaders, cracks are starting to appear, as demonstrated during the May EU summit on the question of a comprehensive oil embargo. These mounting differences are, in many ways, the result of diverging views within member states and among national capitals on how to deal with Ukraine’s future and how to jointly respond to fundamental questions that need to be addressed in reaction to this Zeitenwende. Trust among the EU27 is under pressure.

The age of permacrisis

The manifold geo-political and economic consequences of the war pose a fundamental challenge to the EU and its allies. But even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the Union had been struggling with multiple, interrelated crises (i.e. poly-crisis) over the last decades. From previous Russian acts of aggression to the migration management crisis, from rule-of-law disputes to populism, from the financial and debt crisis to the adverse social and economic impacts of COVID-19, from the ‘Greek crisis’ to Brexit, the EU and its member states have endured one crisis after another, in a phenomenon dubbed by the EPC as ‘permacrisis’. In addition, the Union has been facing profound transitions, including ageing societies, a global technological revolution and the existential threat of climate change, all altered and accentuated first by the pandemic and now by the war in Ukraine....

more at EPC

© European Policy Centre EPC